Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$1.07
EPS est.
$0.98
EPS surprise
+9.07%
1-day move
-0.53%
Nasdaq, Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings per share, but the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.5%. The lack of revenue data and guidance may have contributed to investor uncertainty. Overall, while the EPS beat is a positive sign, the stock's decline suggests caution among investors.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.07 | N/A | +9.07% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Nasdaq, Inc. operates financial exchanges and provides data services, playing a crucial role in the global financial markets. As a major player in the financial sector, it benefits from trends in trading volume and market activity, which can be influenced by economic conditions and investor sentiment.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Nasdaq reported an EPS of $0.96, exceeding expectations by 2.78%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.78% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+5.23%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.42%
Investors are generally optimistic about Nasdaq's upcoming earnings, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.
Bull case
A strong earnings report could reinforce confidence in Nasdaq's growth strategy, leading to increased trading activity and higher stock prices.
Bear case
If earnings fall short of expectations, it could raise concerns about market conditions and trading volumes, negatively impacting the stock.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?
Given Nasdaq's history of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be critical in shaping investor sentiment and stock performance.
Q2
How is Nasdaq's trading volume trending in the current quarter?
Trading volume is a key driver of Nasdaq's revenue, and any insights on this trend will be closely monitored by investors.
—
Est. EPS
$0.34
Est. Rev
$86M
Impl. Move
±11.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Nasdaq's ability to capitalize on increased trading activity driven by market volatility, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.
Supporting evidence
Nasdaq has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.
Recent trends in trading volume may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.
Key risk
If trading volume exceeds expectations, it could significantly boost revenue and earnings.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Nasdaq can maintain its growth trajectory amid fluctuating trading volumes and economic uncertainty.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.90 would raise concerns about market conditions and trading activity.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.62%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±11.6% while NDAQ has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
17.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
86.99%
of float
Insider
11.00%
of float
Holders
1,539
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Investor AB
58,439,208 sh · $5.4B
10.45%
0.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Nasdaq beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.39% on the following day, confirming strong growth potential.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 2.54%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
37,194,072 sh · $3.4B
6.65%
-2.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
31,225,614 sh · $2.9B
5.59%
-0.0%
Wellington Management Group, LLP
30,332,286 sh · $2.8B
5.43%
-16.4%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
26,091,520 sh · $2.4B
4.67%
-0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 25, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.