Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$1.25
EPS est.
$2.05
EPS surprise
-38.91%
1-day move
-1.08%
Newmont Corporation's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which may raise concerns among investors about the company's profitability. The stock reacted by declining 1.08%, reflecting investor sentiment following the disappointing earnings. Without additional context from management commentary or guidance, it remains unclear how the company plans to address these challenges moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.25 | N/A | -38.91% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is a leading gold mining company, operating globally to extract and produce gold. As a major player in the materials sector, its performance is closely tied to gold prices and demand, making it a key focus for investors interested in commodities and resource extraction.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Newmont reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.90, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The stock experienced a slight decline of 0.71% the following day, reflecting mixed market reactions despite the strong EPS surprise.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+24.55%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.20%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about Newmont's upcoming earnings report, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, uncertainty remains regarding gold prices and operational costs.
Bull case
If Newmont continues its trend of strong EPS surprises, it could indicate robust operational performance and potentially lead to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if gold prices decline or production costs increase significantly, it could negatively impact earnings and investor sentiment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected gold production for Q2-2026?
Gold production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a key focus for investors.
Q2
How have operational costs changed compared to previous quarters?
Understanding cost trends is crucial for assessing overall profitability and future earnings potential.
—
Est. EPS
$1.57
Est. Rev
$876M
Impl. Move
±13.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising gold prices on Newmont's profitability this quarter. While there are concerns about operational costs, the recent trend in gold prices suggests a more favorable environment for mining companies.
Supporting evidence
Newmont has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent trends in gold prices have shown resilience, which could positively influence earnings.
Key risk
If gold prices significantly decline, the entire earnings outlook could shift.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on production levels and cost management, which are critical for maintaining profitability.
Bull confirmed if
A gold production increase of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A significant rise in operational costs exceeding 5% would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.44%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.4% while NEM has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
53.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials
Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$790,122.42
6,882 sh
2 insiders
Net
$790,122.42
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$445,692.42
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
81.55%
of float
Insider
0.31%
of float
Holders
2,553
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
120,875,298 sh · $13.7B
11.47%
-4.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Newmont beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.35%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to a muted response, reflecting uncertainty in the market.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.60%, indicating investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$344,430.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $114.81
3,882 sh
$445,692.42
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $114.81
3,000 sh
$344,430.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
69,663,282 sh · $7.9B
6.61%
-1.5%
State Street Corporation
52,396,702 sh · $5.9B
4.97%
3.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
38,580,784 sh · $4.4B
3.66%
2.0%
Van Eck Associates Corporation
32,114,698 sh · $3.6B
3.05%
-10.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.