Equity Profile

NEM

Newmont Corporation

MaterialsGold$119.8B

Jul23Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is a leading gold mining company, operating globally to extract and produce gold. With a market cap of $120 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as gold remains a key asset during times of economic uncertainty.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and performance this quarter.

N/A

Gold Production Volume

This metric will help gauge operational efficiency and demand for gold, impacting revenue.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NEM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+33.89%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Newmont reported an EPS of $2.90, significantly exceeding expectations by 40.37%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.71% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on cost management and operational efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining strong production levels.
Plans to explore new mining opportunities to enhance growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Newmont's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Newmont continues its trend of strong earnings surprises, it could see a significant boost in stock price as confidence in its operational strategy grows.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production costs rise or gold prices fall unexpectedly, it could lead to disappointing earnings, negatively impacting investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported gold production volume for Q2-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's operational efficiency and its ability to meet market demand.

How has the cost of goods sold (COGS) changed compared to previous quarters?

Changes in COGS will directly impact profit margins and overall financial performance, making it a key focus for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising gold prices on Newmont's profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends indicate a strong demand for gold, which could enhance revenue beyond current estimates.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.

Newmont's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in analyst expectations.

Key Risk

If gold prices rise above $2,000 per ounce, it could significantly boost revenue and challenge current market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Newmont can maintain its production levels while controlling costs amidst fluctuating gold prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Gold production volume exceeding 1.5 million ounces would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A COGS increase of more than 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.44%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a substantial move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.4% while NEM has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

53.6%

Calls (558K)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (532K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Newmont beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.35%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.60%, reflecting investor disappointment in production or cost management.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on gold production volume and any changes to guidance.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into market demand for gold and pricing outlook.
4Any commentary on new mining projects or exploration efforts.
5Management's perspective on global economic factors affecting gold prices.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical indicator of the company's profitability and performance this quarter.

N/A

Gold Production Volume

This metric will help gauge operational efficiency and demand for gold, impacting revenue.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NEM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+33.89%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Newmont reported an EPS of $2.90, significantly exceeding expectations by 40.37%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.71% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on cost management and operational efficiency.
Commitment to maintaining strong production levels.
Plans to explore new mining opportunities to enhance growth.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Newmont's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Newmont continues its trend of strong earnings surprises, it could see a significant boost in stock price as confidence in its operational strategy grows.

Bear Case

Conversely, if production costs rise or gold prices fall unexpectedly, it could lead to disappointing earnings, negatively impacting investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported gold production volume for Q2-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's operational efficiency and its ability to meet market demand.

How has the cost of goods sold (COGS) changed compared to previous quarters?

Changes in COGS will directly impact profit margins and overall financial performance, making it a key focus for investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising gold prices on Newmont's profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends indicate a strong demand for gold, which could enhance revenue beyond current estimates.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant surprise.

Newmont's recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in analyst expectations.

Key Risk

If gold prices rise above $2,000 per ounce, it could significantly boost revenue and challenge current market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Newmont can maintain its production levels while controlling costs amidst fluctuating gold prices.

Bull Confirmed If

Gold production volume exceeding 1.5 million ounces would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A COGS increase of more than 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.44%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a substantial move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.4% while NEM has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

53.6%

Calls (558K)P/C Ratio: 0.26Puts (532K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Newmont beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.35%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of about 1.60%, reflecting investor disappointment in production or cost management.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on gold production volume and any changes to guidance.
2Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
3Insights into market demand for gold and pricing outlook.
4Any commentary on new mining projects or exploration efforts.
5Management's perspective on global economic factors affecting gold prices.