Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 1, 2026
Est. EPS
$-0.06
Est. revenue
$0M
Implied move
±21.6%
EPS beat rate
13%
NovaGold Resources Inc. is a gold exploration and development company focused on creating value through its projects in North America. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as gold remains a key asset amid economic uncertainties.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, NovaGold reported an EPS of -0.25, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 5.01%.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-60.27%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.19%
Analysts are expecting a continued loss in EPS for Q1-2026, with a consensus of -0.06. The lack of revenue expectations indicates uncertainty around the company's operational progress.
Bull case
If NovaGold can narrow its losses and provide positive updates on project developments, it may boost investor confidence and lead to a stock rally.
Bear case
Continued losses and no revenue could raise concerns about the company's viability and lead to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
-0.06Earnings per share (EPS) is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and performance against analyst expectations.
Revenue
0MWhile no revenue is expected this quarter, any updates on future revenue potential will be closely watched.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of -0.06?
A smaller loss than expected could signal improved operational efficiency and investor confidence.
Q2
What updates can management provide on project timelines or potential revenue generation?
Insights into future revenue prospects will be critical for assessing the company's growth potential.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
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Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for NovaGold to narrow its losses based on recent operational improvements.
Supporting evidence
The stock has shown resilience following earnings misses in the past, often recovering quickly.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders are anticipating a surprise.
The company's historical ability to beat EPS estimates could indicate a potential for a positive surprise.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in better than -0.03, it could shift market sentiment positively.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether NovaGold can improve its financial performance and provide clarity on its project timelines.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of -0.03 or better would confirm the bull case and suggest operational improvements.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than -0.08 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's future.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±21.59%
Historical Avg
±6.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±21.6% while NG has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
81.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
81.90%
of float
Insider
1.30%
of float
Holders
351
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Electrum Group LLC
92,902,813 sh · $590.9M
21.17%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NovaGold beats expectations with an EPS of -0.03 or better, history suggests the stock could rise by about 15% the next day.
In line / cautious
If results align with expectations, the stock may experience a muted response as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A worse-than-expected EPS could lead to a decline of around 5% based on historical reactions to misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Lingotto Investment Management LLP
33,431,500 sh · $212.6M
7.62%
-9.3%
PAULSON & CO. INC.
27,238,061 sh · $173.2M
6.21%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
21,771,094 sh · $138.5M
4.96%
25.3%
FMR, LLC
14,990,494 sh · $95.3M
3.42%
-32.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.