Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jun 24, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.06
EPS est.
$-0.06
EPS surprise
+0.00%
1-day move
-14.13%
NovaGold's earnings report shows a larger than expected loss per share, which contributed to a significant drop in stock price. The lack of revenue and guidance further adds to investor uncertainty. The 14.13% decline in stock price reflects market disappointment with the results.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.06 | $-0.03 | +0.00% |
| Revenue | $0M | $0M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
NovaGold Resources Inc. is a materials company focused on gold mining. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the gold industry, which is influenced by factors like commodity prices and global economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, NovaGold reported an EPS of $-0.25, significantly missing estimates. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 5.01%.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-60.27%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.19%
Analysts expect a slight loss this quarter, with EPS projected at $-0.03. Investors will be looking for any signs of improved operational efficiency or future revenue potential.
Bull case
If NovaGold can beat EPS expectations and provide a positive outlook, it could signal a turnaround, driving the stock higher.
Bear case
A continued trend of losses without any revenue could lead to further declines in stock price, as investor confidence wanes.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.03Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
$0MAlthough no revenue is expected this quarter, any commentary on future revenue streams will be crucial for investor confidence.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will NovaGold provide any guidance on future revenue streams?
Investors are eager to hear about potential revenue sources, especially since no revenue is expected this quarter.
Q2
How does management plan to address the ongoing losses?
Understanding management's strategy for reducing losses will be crucial for investor sentiment and stock performance.
—
Est. EPS
$1.38
Est. Rev
$745M
Impl. Move
±9.8%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for NovaGold to reduce losses and improve operational efficiency, given its historical performance.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 42.5% move, indicating significant expectations for volatility.
The company has a history of surprising the market, as seen in the last quarter's performance.
Past trends show that the stock often reacts positively to unexpected news.
Key risk
If management provides a credible plan for addressing losses, it could shift market sentiment significantly.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal as they will reflect the company's ability to manage costs and generate revenue amidst challenging conditions.
Bull confirmed if
A surprise EPS of $0.00 or better would indicate a significant improvement in operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-0.03 would confirm ongoing financial struggles.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±42.5%
Historical Avg
±6.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±42.5% while NG has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
87.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials
Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
81.90%
of float
Insider
1.30%
of float
Holders
351
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Electrum Group LLC
92,902,813 sh · $590.9M
21.17%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NovaGold beats expectations with an EPS better than $-0.03, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 15%.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a drop of about 5%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Lingotto Investment Management LLP
33,431,500 sh · $212.6M
7.62%
-9.3%
PAULSON & CO. INC.
27,238,061 sh · $173.2M
6.21%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
21,771,094 sh · $138.5M
4.96%
25.3%
FMR, LLC
14,990,494 sh · $95.3M
3.42%
-32.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.