Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
NTNL HEALTH INVS INC REIT (NHI) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on healthcare properties. With a market cap of $4 billion, it plays a crucial role in the healthcare sector by providing capital to healthcare providers through property investments.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its expenses and revenue.
Revenue
Total revenue is essential for understanding the company's overall financial health and growth trajectory.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.42%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.19%
In Q4-2025, NHI reported an EPS of $1.22, slightly missing estimates. The stock reacted with a minor decline the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect NHI to report an EPS of $0.86 and revenue of $105 million for Q1-2026, reflecting cautious optimism.
Bull Case
If NHI exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational performance and improved demand for healthcare properties.
Bear Case
Conversely, if NHI misses its EPS target, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the healthcare real estate market, leading to negative investor sentiment.
EPS
0.86Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its expenses and revenue.
Revenue
105MTotal revenue is essential for understanding the company's overall financial health and growth trajectory.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will NHI's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.86?
A beat on EPS could boost investor confidence and indicate strong management performance.
Q2
What commentary will management provide on revenue growth and market conditions?
Insights into revenue trends and market challenges will be critical for assessing future performance.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate NHI's ability to rebound from recent misses, as the healthcare real estate sector shows signs of recovery.
Supporting Evidence
Options are pricing a 5.82% move, suggesting higher volatility than historical averages.
NHI has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% success rate in the last eight quarters.
Key Risk
If NHI reports an EPS significantly above $0.86, it could shift market sentiment positively.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether NHI can sustain profitability amidst potential headwinds in the healthcare real estate sector.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.90 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.79 would signal potential ongoing challenges in the market.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±5.82%
Historical Avg
±1.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.8% while NHI has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
30.8%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Real Estate
n=30Fade rate: 5 of 27 (19%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Real Estate in the last 2 years. 22 of 27 (81%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.9%, with a raw directional average of +1.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If NHI beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction, with an average 1-day move of +0.42%, confirming strong demand.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average 1-day move of -0.19%, reflecting investor disappointment.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jan 15, 2026 · disclosed Feb 13, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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