Equity Profile

NLY

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$15.8B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

Expected to be around $0.76

Dividend Payout

As a REIT, Annaly is expected to provide dividends, which are crucial for income-focused investors.

Expected to maintain or increase the current dividend

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities. With a market cap of $16 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in housing finance and interest rate trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating expectations by 2.98%. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 0.22% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining dividend stability.
Commitment to managing interest rate risks effectively.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in mortgage-backed securities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Annaly to report stable earnings, with a focus on maintaining dividends amidst fluctuating interest rates.

Bull Case

If Annaly can demonstrate strong EPS growth and maintain or increase its dividend, it could attract more income-focused investors, boosting the stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS expectations or shows signs of weakening margins, it could lead to a sell-off, particularly among dividend-focused investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $0.76

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

Dividend Payout

Expected to maintain or increase the current dividend

As a REIT, Annaly is expected to provide dividends, which are crucial for income-focused investors.

Net Interest Margin

No specific estimate available

This metric will indicate how effectively the company is managing its interest income relative to its expenses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

Will the dividend payout be maintained or increased?

As a REIT, dividend stability is crucial for attracting and retaining investors, particularly in a volatile interest rate environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on Annaly's net interest margins, which could be more significant than currently anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing indicates a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened uncertainty.

The recent trend of EPS surprises indicates a potential for continued strong performance.

The lack of recent peer reports may mean that the market is not fully accounting for sector-wide challenges.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $0.74, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Annaly navigates interest rate challenges and maintains its dividend strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and likely lead to increased investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.74 would indicate potential issues in profitability and could trigger a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.92%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats EPS expectations and raises its dividend, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, averaging a 1-day move of around -0.30%.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average 1-day move of -0.46% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on interest rate management strategies.
2Details on the dividend policy moving forward.
3Insights into the mortgage-backed securities market outlook.
4Comments on operational efficiencies and cost management.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations.

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Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

Expected to be around $0.76

Dividend Payout

As a REIT, Annaly is expected to provide dividends, which are crucial for income-focused investors.

Expected to maintain or increase the current dividend

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating expectations by 2.98%. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 0.22% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on maintaining dividend stability.
Commitment to managing interest rate risks effectively.
Plans to explore new investment opportunities in mortgage-backed securities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Annaly to report stable earnings, with a focus on maintaining dividends amidst fluctuating interest rates.

Bull Case

If Annaly can demonstrate strong EPS growth and maintain or increase its dividend, it could attract more income-focused investors, boosting the stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS expectations or shows signs of weakening margins, it could lead to a sell-off, particularly among dividend-focused investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Expected to be around $0.76

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

Dividend Payout

Expected to maintain or increase the current dividend

As a REIT, Annaly is expected to provide dividends, which are crucial for income-focused investors.

Net Interest Margin

No specific estimate available

This metric will indicate how effectively the company is managing its interest income relative to its expenses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

Will the dividend payout be maintained or increased?

As a REIT, dividend stability is crucial for attracting and retaining investors, particularly in a volatile interest rate environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on Annaly's net interest margins, which could be more significant than currently anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing indicates a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened uncertainty.

The recent trend of EPS surprises indicates a potential for continued strong performance.

The lack of recent peer reports may mean that the market is not fully accounting for sector-wide challenges.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $0.74, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well Annaly navigates interest rate challenges and maintains its dividend strategy.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and likely lead to increased investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.74 would indicate potential issues in profitability and could trigger a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.92%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats EPS expectations and raises its dividend, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, averaging a 1-day move of around -0.30%.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average 1-day move of -0.46% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on interest rate management strategies.
2Details on the dividend policy moving forward.
3Insights into the mortgage-backed securities market outlook.
4Comments on operational efficiencies and cost management.
5Any guidance on future earnings expectations.