Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
EPS actual
$0.79
EPS est.
$0.75
EPS surprise
+5.05%
1-day move
-0.22%
Annaly Capital Management reported an EPS of $0.79, exceeding expectations by 5.05%. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.22%. The lack of revenue data and management commentary may have contributed to the muted stock performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.79 | N/A | +5.05% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is a leading mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in and finances residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities. With a market cap of $18 billion, it plays a crucial role in the financial sector, particularly in providing liquidity to the mortgage market.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 2.98%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.22% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the positive earnings surprise.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+2.92%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.09%
Overall, analysts expect Annaly to continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, but the lack of specific guidance may lead to uncertainty in stock performance post-earnings.
Bull case
If Annaly reports strong EPS and maintains or increases its dividend, it could attract more investors, driving the stock price higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?
Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.
Q2
Will the dividend payout be maintained or increased?
As a REIT, dividend decisions are critical for attracting and retaining investors, and any changes could significantly impact share price.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on Annaly's net interest margin, which could lead to better-than-expected profitability.
Supporting evidence
The historical EPS beat rate of 88% suggests strong operational performance.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting investor uncertainty that could be mispriced.
Recent trends in the mortgage market may favor Annaly's investment strategy.
Key risk
If net interest margins exceed expectations due to favorable market conditions, it could challenge the current consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Annaly's ability to maintain profitability and shareholder returns amidst changing interest rates.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case and likely lead to increased investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case and could lead to a sell-off in the stock.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.92%
Historical Avg
±0.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 8%, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
17.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
62.31%
of float
Insider
0.10%
of float
Holders
1,041
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
87,219,586 sh · $1.6B
11.57%
6.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Annaly beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, averaging a 1-day move of around -0.30%.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement, reflecting investor uncertainty.
Miss
Should the company miss EPS estimates, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, averaging a 1-day move of -0.46%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
32,900,428 sh · $589.9M
4.37%
2.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
31,250,997 sh · $560.3M
4.15%
1.6%
State Street Corporation
29,426,379 sh · $527.6M
3.90%
4.5%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
20,823,764 sh · $373.4M
2.76%
4.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.