Equity Profile

NLY

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$17.6B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates in the financial sector as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and is a key indicator for investors.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric will help assess how effectively Annaly is managing its interest income versus expenses, especially in a fluctuating interest rate environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates in the financial sector as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). The company invests in and finances residential and commercial mortgage assets, making it a key player in the housing finance market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 2.98%. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 0.22% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Annaly to continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, but there is uncertainty regarding revenue growth and interest rate impacts.

Bull Case

If Annaly can maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to higher EPS and a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if rising interest rates squeeze margins or if the company fails to meet EPS expectations, it could lead to a significant stock decline.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact stock performance.

How is the net interest margin expected to change in the current economic climate?

Understanding the net interest margin will provide insight into how well Annaly is managing its income and expenses amidst fluctuating interest rates.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of interest rate changes on Annaly's net interest margin, which could be more favorable than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Annaly's recent EPS surprises indicate a consistent ability to outperform expectations.

Key Risk

If the net interest margin shows unexpected strength, it could challenge current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Annaly's ability to navigate interest rate changes while maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.9%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 8%, indicating heightened uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest uptick, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future guidance.

Miss

A disappointing EPS could lead to a decline, as history indicates an average drop of around 0.46% when they miss.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy regarding interest rate management.
2Details on the performance of specific mortgage assets.
3Insights into dividend sustainability and potential changes.
4Management's outlook on the housing market and economic conditions.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning within the mortgage REIT sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Domino's Pizza, Inc.

Company Snapshot

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates in the financial sector as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and is a key indicator for investors.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric will help assess how effectively Annaly is managing its interest income versus expenses, especially in a fluctuating interest rate environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NLY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.32%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Annaly reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 2.98%. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 0.22% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Annaly to continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, but there is uncertainty regarding revenue growth and interest rate impacts.

Bull Case

If Annaly can maintain or improve its net interest margin, it could lead to higher EPS and a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if rising interest rates squeeze margins or if the company fails to meet EPS expectations, it could lead to a significant stock decline.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact stock performance.

How is the net interest margin expected to change in the current economic climate?

Understanding the net interest margin will provide insight into how well Annaly is managing its income and expenses amidst fluctuating interest rates.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of interest rate changes on Annaly's net interest margin, which could be more favorable than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility.

Annaly's recent EPS surprises indicate a consistent ability to outperform expectations.

Key Risk

If the net interest margin shows unexpected strength, it could challenge current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on Annaly's ability to navigate interest rate changes while maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting challenges in profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.9%

Historical Avg

±0.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 8%, indicating heightened uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while NLY has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.0%

Calls (85K)P/C Ratio: 0.83Puts (35K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Annaly beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest uptick, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future guidance.

Miss

A disappointing EPS could lead to a decline, as history indicates an average drop of around 0.46% when they miss.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy regarding interest rate management.
2Details on the performance of specific mortgage assets.
3Insights into dividend sustainability and potential changes.
4Management's outlook on the housing market and economic conditions.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning within the mortgage REIT sector.