Equity Profile

NMIH

NMI Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$2.8B

Apr30Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:01 PM EDT

NMI Holdings, Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 5.86%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.28	$1.23	+4.66%
Revenue	N/A	$183M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

NMI Holdings, Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 5.86%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.28	$1.23	+4.66%
Revenue	N/A	$183M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

NMI Holdings, Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings per share for Q1-2026, but the stock fell by 5.86% in reaction. The decline may be attributed to the lack of revenue data and guidance, leaving investors uncertain about future performance. The market often reacts negatively to uncertainty, which could explain the stock's drop despite the EPS beat.

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

1.23

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position.

183M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance industry, it plays a significant role in facilitating homeownership and managing risk for lenders.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, NMIH reported an EPS of $1.20, exceeding estimates by 2.3%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.63% the following day, indicating a positive market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect NMIH to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.23. The market is looking for continued strength in the mortgage insurance sector amidst fluctuating interest rates.

Bull Case

If NMIH beats EPS expectations, it could signal strong demand for mortgage insurance, potentially leading to increased market confidence and a higher stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates, it may indicate underlying weaknesses in the mortgage market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

1.23

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

183M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will NMIH's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.23?

A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in the company's profitability and growth potential, especially in a competitive mortgage market.

What insights can management provide about revenue trends in the current mortgage environment?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's market position and ability to navigate economic challenges.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of recent mortgage rate trends on NMIH's performance, as the company has shown resilience in past quarters despite market fluctuations.

Supporting Evidence

NMIH has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations that may not be justified.

Recent trends in mortgage applications could signal stronger demand than anticipated.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $1.19, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it reflects the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.25 or higher would confirm strong performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.19 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.78%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

18.4%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 6 (83%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 5 of 6 (83%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.2%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMIH beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.96%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.64%, indicating potential weaknesses in the mortgage insurance market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance demand trends in the current economic climate.
2Management's outlook on interest rate impacts on future earnings.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into competitive positioning within the mortgage insurance market.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the mortgage sector.

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Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

1.23

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position.

183M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, NMIH reported an EPS of $1.20, exceeding estimates by 2.3%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.63% the following day, indicating a positive market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If NMIH beats EPS expectations, it could signal strong demand for mortgage insurance, potentially leading to increased market confidence and a higher stock price.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings estimates, it may indicate underlying weaknesses in the mortgage market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

1.23

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

183M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will NMIH's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.23?

A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in the company's profitability and growth potential, especially in a competitive mortgage market.

What insights can management provide about revenue trends in the current mortgage environment?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's market position and ability to navigate economic challenges.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the impact of recent mortgage rate trends on NMIH's performance, as the company has shown resilience in past quarters despite market fluctuations.

Supporting Evidence

NMIH has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations that may not be justified.

Recent trends in mortgage applications could signal stronger demand than anticipated.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in below $1.19, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it reflects the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.25 or higher would confirm strong performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.19 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.78%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.8% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

18.4%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 6 (83%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMIH beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.96%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.64%, indicating potential weaknesses in the mortgage insurance market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance demand trends in the current economic climate.
2Management's outlook on interest rate impacts on future earnings.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into competitive positioning within the mortgage insurance market.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the mortgage sector.