Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$1.38
EPS est.
$1.28
EPS surprise
+8.07%
1-day move
-2.03%
NMI Holdings, Inc. reported a better-than-expected EPS for the quarter, which indicates strong earnings performance. However, the stock fell by 2.03% in reaction, suggesting that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information or future guidance. The absence of management commentary may have also contributed to the stock's decline.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.38 | $1.29 | +8.07% |
| Revenue | — | $185M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
NMI Holdings, Inc. is a financial services company that provides mortgage insurance for both commercial and residential properties. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a crucial role in the housing finance sector, especially as interest rates and housing demand fluctuate.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, NMI Holdings reported an EPS of $1.28, exceeding estimates by 4.66%. However, the stock fell 5.86% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.53%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.05%
Analysts expect NMI Holdings to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.29. The market is closely watching how the company navigates the current economic environment and housing market trends.
Bull case
If NMI Holdings beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for mortgage insurance, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its ability to sustain profitability in a challenging housing market.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.29Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$185MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand for its mortgage insurance products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will NMI Holdings achieve an EPS of $1.29 or better?
This metric is crucial for assessing the company's profitability and could significantly impact investor sentiment.
Q2
What insights can management provide about revenue growth in the current housing market?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's performance and outlook in a fluctuating economic environment.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±15.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent housing market trends on NMI Holdings' revenue potential. The company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates suggests it could outperform expectations this quarter.
Supporting evidence
NMI has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, with an 88% success rate.
The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility which could favor a positive surprise.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS below $1.25, it could challenge the optimistic view held by the market.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether NMI Holdings can maintain its profitability amid changing housing market conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.29 or higher, coupled with strong revenue growth, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.25 would support the bear case, indicating potential challenges ahead.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.68%
Historical Avg
±2.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
31.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.47%
of float
Insider
1.58%
of float
Holders
484
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
13,189,334 sh · $521.5M
17.53%
2.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NMI Holdings beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of +0.25%, confirming strong demand for its services.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the broader market.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of -0.64%, indicating investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
4,665,910 sh · $184.5M
6.20%
7.2%
State Street Corporation
3,478,523 sh · $137.5M
4.62%
5.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,420,198 sh · $135.2M
4.55%
-0.3%
American Century Companies Inc
3,046,624 sh · $120.5M
4.05%
12.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.