Equity Profile

NMIH

NMI Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$3.2B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, specifically focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, and investors will look for growth or stability in this metric.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the company's revenue generation from its core business and is essential for assessing growth prospects.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMIH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, specifically focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a provider of mortgage insurance, it plays a crucial role in facilitating home ownership and supporting the housing market, which is vital for economic stability.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, NMIH reported an EPS of $1.28, exceeding estimates by 4.66%. However, the stock declined by 5.86% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about NMIH's upcoming earnings, given its strong historical performance in beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of analyst estimates may lead to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If NMIH continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and growth, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of increased claims, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial in determining market sentiment and stock performance.

What is the current claims rate and how does it impact profitability?

Understanding the claims rate will provide insight into the company's risk management and overall financial health, which is vital for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of a potential increase in mortgage insurance premiums, which could significantly boost NMIH's revenue despite broader market concerns.

Supporting Evidence

NMIH has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors expect significant volatility.

Recent trends in the housing market may favor NMIH's business model, contradicting bearish sentiment.

Key Risk

If mortgage insurance premiums increase significantly, it could lead to a substantial upward revision in revenue expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether NMIH can sustain its earnings growth amidst potential challenges in the mortgage finance sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating continued strong performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability and operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.68%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 21.00Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMIH beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction, potentially around +0.25% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.

Miss

If the company misses EPS estimates, history suggests a potential decline of around -0.64% on the next trading day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium trends and their impact on revenue.
2Details on the claims rate and how it compares to historical averages.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its implications for future growth.
4Insights into operational efficiencies or cost management strategies.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the mortgage insurance space.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Jul27

DYNBMO

Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.

PreviewView

Jul27

ARLPBMO

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, specifically focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, and investors will look for growth or stability in this metric.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the company's revenue generation from its core business and is essential for assessing growth prospects.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMIH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, NMIH reported an EPS of $1.28, exceeding estimates by 4.66%. However, the stock declined by 5.86% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about NMIH's upcoming earnings, given its strong historical performance in beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of analyst estimates may lead to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If NMIH continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and growth, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of increased claims, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting investor concerns.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial in determining market sentiment and stock performance.

What is the current claims rate and how does it impact profitability?

Understanding the claims rate will provide insight into the company's risk management and overall financial health, which is vital for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of a potential increase in mortgage insurance premiums, which could significantly boost NMIH's revenue despite broader market concerns.

Supporting Evidence

NMIH has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors expect significant volatility.

Recent trends in the housing market may favor NMIH's business model, contradicting bearish sentiment.

Key Risk

If mortgage insurance premiums increase significantly, it could lead to a substantial upward revision in revenue expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether NMIH can sustain its earnings growth amidst potential challenges in the mortgage finance sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.30 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating continued strong performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability and operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.68%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 21.00Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMIH beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction, potentially around +0.25% on the following day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.

Miss

If the company misses EPS estimates, history suggests a potential decline of around -0.64% on the next trading day.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium trends and their impact on revenue.
2Details on the claims rate and how it compares to historical averages.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and its implications for future growth.
4Insights into operational efficiencies or cost management strategies.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the mortgage insurance space.