Equity Profile

NMIH

NMI Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$3.4B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

$1.29

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position.

$185M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMIH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance market, the company helps lenders manage risk, which is crucial in a fluctuating housing market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, NMIH reported an EPS of $1.28, exceeding expectations by 4.66%. However, the stock fell by 5.86% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect NMIH to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.29. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in the mortgage insurance sector.

Bull Case

If NMIH can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for mortgage insurance, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a significant stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.29

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

$185M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will NMIH's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.29?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's profitability and could positively influence investor sentiment.

What insights can management provide on revenue growth in the current mortgage market?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's performance in a competitive environment and its ability to capture market share.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate NMIH's ability to capitalize on a recovering housing market, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

NMIH has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility that may not align with consensus expectations.

Key Risk

If the company reports a revenue increase above $185M, it could challenge the current market skepticism.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to navigate a challenging mortgage environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.33 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.25 would raise concerns about profitability and market dynamics.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.68%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 21.00Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMIH beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.25%, confirming a strong operational outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the mortgage market.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of around 0.64%, indicating investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on market share gains in the mortgage insurance sector.
2Management's outlook on the impact of interest rates on mortgage applications.
3Details on any new products or services that could drive future growth.
4Insights into claims experience and how it may affect profitability.
5Comments on competitive pressures and how NMIH plans to address them.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

$1.29

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position.

$185M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NMIH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+5.47%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.14%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, NMIH reported an EPS of $1.28, exceeding expectations by 4.66%. However, the stock fell by 5.86% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect NMIH to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.29. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in the mortgage insurance sector.

Bull Case

If NMIH can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for mortgage insurance, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a significant stock decline.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.29

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

Revenue

$185M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the overall demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will NMIH's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.29?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's profitability and could positively influence investor sentiment.

What insights can management provide on revenue growth in the current mortgage market?

Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's performance in a competitive environment and its ability to capture market share.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate NMIH's ability to capitalize on a recovering housing market, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

NMIH has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility that may not align with consensus expectations.

Key Risk

If the company reports a revenue increase above $185M, it could challenge the current market skepticism.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to navigate a challenging mortgage environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.33 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.25 would raise concerns about profitability and market dynamics.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.68%

Historical Avg

±1.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.7% while NMIH has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.2%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 21.00Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NMIH beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.25%, confirming a strong operational outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in the mortgage market.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of around 0.64%, indicating investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on market share gains in the mortgage insurance sector.
2Management's outlook on the impact of interest rates on mortgage applications.
3Details on any new products or services that could drive future growth.
4Insights into claims experience and how it may affect profitability.
5Comments on competitive pressures and how NMIH plans to address them.