Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
EPS actual
$7.68
EPS est.
$6.84
EPS surprise
+12.33%
1-day move
-2.23%
Northrop Grumman's earnings report showed a strong performance in EPS, exceeding expectations by over 12%. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.23%. This drop may reflect investor concerns despite the positive EPS surprise, particularly given the lack of revenue figures and guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $7.68 | $6.83 | +12.33% |
| Revenue | — | $10.8B | — |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is a leading aerospace and defense company that plays a crucial role in national security and technology innovation. With a market cap of $82 billion, it focuses on advanced systems and solutions for military and commercial applications, making it a key player in the industrial sector.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Northrop Grumman reported an EPS of $6.14, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock fell by nearly 7% the following day, indicating market caution.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
5Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+3.34%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.05%
Analysts expect Northrop Grumman to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $6.83 and revenue of $10.8 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth in defense spending.
Bull case
If Northrop Grumman exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for defense products, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings or revenue targets, especially after a previous strong quarter, it could raise concerns about future growth and lead to a significant stock decline.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$6.83Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$10.8BTotal revenue provides insight into the company's sales performance and demand for its products and services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $6.83?
A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in the company's profitability and operational efficiency.
Q2
What are the revenue projections for upcoming quarters?
Revenue guidance will be critical in assessing future growth potential, especially in the context of defense spending trends.
—
Est. EPS
$0.41
Est. Rev
$318.0B
Impl. Move
±16.8%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent defense contracts, which could drive higher-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Northrop Grumman has historically beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time.
The options market is pricing a larger move than the historical average, indicating potential for a surprise.
Recent defense spending trends suggest increased demand for aerospace and defense solutions.
Key risk
If revenue comes in below $10.7 billion, it could undermine the bullish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Northrop Grumman can sustain its growth trajectory amid fluctuating defense budgets.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $7.01 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $6.72 would raise concerns about profitability and market positioning.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.39%
Historical Avg
±4.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±11.4% while NOC has averaged ±4.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
27.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.54%
of float
Insider
0.27%
of float
Holders
2,235
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
State Street Corporation
13,169,195 sh · $6.2B
9.27%
1.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Northrop Grumman beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.84%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a significant decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of 12.66% following disappointing results.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
11,783,817 sh · $5.6B
8.30%
8.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
8,997,139 sh · $4.3B
6.33%
0.5%
Capital International Investors
5,852,674 sh · $2.8B
4.12%
-17.5%
Capital World Investors
5,062,384 sh · $2.4B
3.56%
-26.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.