Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$0.08
EPS est.
$0.07
EPS surprise
+10.92%
1-day move
-5.35%
Nokia Oyj (NOK) is a technology company that specializes in communications equipment, playing a vital role in the telecommunications industry. With a market cap of $60 billion, Nokia is involved in major themes like 5G technology and network infrastructure, which are crucial for the ongoing digital transformation across various sectors.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Nokia reported an EPS of $0.02, which was significantly below the expected $0.06, leading to a stock increase of 4.77% the following day. This performance highlights ongoing challenges in meeting market expectations.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-23.56%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.74%
Overall, expectations for Nokia's upcoming earnings are cautious, given the recent earnings miss and lack of analyst estimates. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue growth.
Bull case
If Nokia can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it may signal a turnaround in performance, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide clear guidance on 5G deployment, it could lead to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current status of Nokia's 5G deployment and how does it compare to competitors?
This information will be crucial for understanding Nokia's competitive position in the rapidly evolving telecommunications market.
Q2
Can Nokia provide clear guidance on expected revenue growth for the upcoming quarters?
Guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's recovery potential and overall business outlook.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Nokia's potential for a rebound in 5G deployment, which could drive significant revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
Nokia's recent investments in 5G infrastructure may not be fully reflected in current market expectations.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.
Nokia's strategic partnerships in the telecom sector could enhance its competitive edge, contrary to bearish sentiment.
Key risk
If 5G deployment accelerates faster than anticipated, it could significantly alter revenue projections.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core thesis this quarter revolves around Nokia's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate growth in a competitive landscape.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue growth rate of over 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A continued decline in EPS or revenue below expectations would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±17.00%
Historical Avg
±6.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 17%, indicating heightened uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.
Options are pricing ±17.0% while NOK has averaged ±6.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
74.7%
Cross-company pattern from 29 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Information Technology
Fade rate: 9 of 29 (31%)
This setup has occurred 29 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 20 of 29 (69%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 8.2%, with a raw directional average of +3.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
15.83%
of float
Insider
2.97%
of float
Holders
924
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Nvidia Corp
166,389,351 sh · $1.8B
2.90%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
History suggests that if Nokia beats expectations, the stock could rise by an average of 3.36%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
If Nokia misses expectations again, history indicates a potential decline of around 2.60%, raising concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
0 buys·3 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$17,003.00–$80,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
FMR, LLC
155,401,653 sh · $1.7B
2.71%
-30.1%
Arrowstreet Capital, Limited Partnership
38,172,814 sh · $405.4M
0.66%
-8.8%
Alkeon Capital Management LLC
36,000,000 sh · $382.3M
0.63%
100.0%
Morgan Stanley
33,211,071 sh · $352.7M
0.58%
107.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 6, 2026 · disclosed Jul 19, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 2, 2026 · disclosed Jul 19, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 11, 2026 · disclosed Jul 19, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.