Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Apr 27, 2026
EPS actual
$0.05
EPS est.
$0.17
EPS surprise
-70.76%
1-day move
+1.57%
This earnings report indicates that NOV Inc. faced significant challenges in the first quarter, particularly reflected in the EPS miss. Despite this, the stock rose by 1.56%, suggesting that investors may be optimistic about the company's long-term strategies. The lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.05 | $0.15 | -70.76% |
| Revenue | N/A | $2.0B | N/A |
Overall, management expressed a cautious optimism about future prospects. They are focused on addressing current issues while aiming for operational improvements.
Management acknowledged the challenges faced in the quarter but highlighted ongoing efforts to improve operations.
They emphasized a commitment to long-term growth despite short-term setbacks.
NOV Inc. is a key player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas equipment and services. With a market cap of $7 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supporting the global energy infrastructure, especially as demand for energy continues to evolve.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, NOV reported an EPS of -$0.21, significantly missing expectations of $0.25. Despite this, the stock saw a modest increase of 3.25% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-29.60%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.63%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about NOV's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a modest profit. However, the company has struggled with earnings surprises in recent quarters.
Bull case
If NOV can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate current market challenges.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.15Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and will show how well NOV has managed costs and revenue.
Revenue
$2.0BTotal revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will NOV achieve an EPS of at least $0.15?
This figure is crucial as it would indicate a recovery in profitability after recent misses.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the oil and gas services sector?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge demand for NOV's services and its competitive position in the market.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate NOV's ability to leverage operational efficiencies, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.
Supporting evidence
Recent cost-cutting measures may not be fully reflected in current EPS estimates.
The energy sector is showing signs of recovery, which could positively impact NOV's revenue.
Options pricing suggests higher volatility, indicating that traders expect significant movement.
Key risk
If NOV's revenue exceeds $2.1B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching NOV's ability to rebound from previous earnings misses and its overall revenue performance.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.21 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.04 would validate the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.98%
Historical Avg
±1.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.1% while NOV has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
33.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
108.44%
of float
Insider
0.73%
of float
Holders
637
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
37,626,738 sh · $700.6M
10.56%
-0.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NOV beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +1.66%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average move of +0.91% in such scenarios.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Pzena Investment Management LLC
36,376,087 sh · $677.3M
10.20%
-3.1%
First Eagle Investment Management, LLC
30,684,691 sh · $571.3M
8.61%
-15.7%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
19,669,754 sh · $366.3M
5.52%
1.4%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
18,926,272 sh · $352.4M
5.31%
0.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.