Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$0.31
EPS est.
$0.16
EPS surprise
+94.97%
1-day move
-3.18%
NOV Inc. is a key player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas equipment and services. With a market cap of $7 billion, the company is significant in the ongoing energy transition and the recovery of oil prices, which can impact its performance and investor interest.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, NOV reported an EPS of $0.05, significantly missing the estimate of $0.17, which raised concerns about its profitability. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 1.56%, despite the disappointing earnings.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-29.60%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.63%
Overall, expectations are mixed as NOV has struggled with earnings surprises in recent quarters. Investors are hoping for a turnaround in profitability and revenue growth.
Bull case
If NOV can report better-than-expected earnings and show signs of revenue growth, it could signal a recovery phase, leading to increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if NOV continues to miss earnings estimates and fails to demonstrate revenue growth, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q2-2026, and can it exceed the previous quarter's performance?
Given the recent trend of earnings misses, a positive EPS could restore investor confidence and support stock price recovery.
Q2
How does NOV plan to address its revenue growth challenges in the current market environment?
Investors will be looking for concrete strategies to improve revenue, as this is crucial for the company's long-term viability.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating NOV's potential for a rebound in profitability due to recent operational improvements that have not yet been fully recognized.
Supporting evidence
The stock has shown resilience with positive reactions despite earnings misses, suggesting underlying strength.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, which may reflect a more optimistic outlook than current earnings estimates suggest.
Key risk
If NOV can demonstrate a clear path to revenue growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of disappointing earnings, and investors are eager to see if NOV can turn things around.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.05 would confirm the bear case, suggesting continued struggles in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.96%
Historical Avg
±1.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 15%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±15.0% while NOV has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
32.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
108.44%
of float
Insider
0.73%
of float
Holders
637
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
37,626,738 sh · $700.6M
10.56%
-0.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NOV beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.17%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await more clarity on future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 1.02% following such outcomes.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Pzena Investment Management LLC
36,376,087 sh · $677.3M
10.20%
-3.1%
First Eagle Investment Management, LLC
30,684,691 sh · $571.3M
8.61%
-15.7%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
19,669,754 sh · $366.3M
5.52%
1.4%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
18,926,272 sh · $352.4M
5.31%
0.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.