Equity Profile

NTB

The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited

FinancialsDiversified Banks$2.5B

Jul27Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the bank's ability to expand its business and attract new customers, which is crucial for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NTB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (NTB) is a diversified bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and trust services. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, especially in the Caribbean and the UK.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.25%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, NTB reported an EPS of $1.55, exceeding expectations by 11.11%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.48% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on expanding loan portfolios.
Commitment to enhancing customer service and digital banking capabilities.
Plans to maintain strong capital ratios.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for NTB's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the bank can maintain its strong performance.

Bull Case

If NTB beats earnings expectations again, it could signal robust demand for its services and effective management strategies, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about loan growth and profitability, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a crucial measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from previous quarters could impact investor sentiment.

How has loan growth performed in the last quarter?

Loan growth is essential for revenue generation, and insights into this metric will help assess the bank's future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate NTB's ability to sustain loan growth, especially given its recent performance and market positioning.

Supporting Evidence

NTB has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent trends in the banking sector show increasing demand for loans, which NTB may capitalize on.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of NTB's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it follows a series of positive earnings surprises.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.60 or higher would confirm strong profitability and effective management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.40 would raise concerns about the bank's ability to sustain growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.94%

Historical Avg

±0.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.9% while NTB has averaged ±0.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

18.4%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NTB beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.25%, confirming strong demand and management effectiveness.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain flat as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a possible drop of around 0.60%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth metrics and demand trends.
2Insights into cost management and operational efficiency.
3Comments on digital banking initiatives and customer acquisition.
4Guidance on future capital ratios and financial health.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting the banking sector.

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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the bank's ability to expand its business and attract new customers, which is crucial for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NTB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+12.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.25%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, NTB reported an EPS of $1.55, exceeding expectations by 11.11%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.48% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued focus on expanding loan portfolios.
Commitment to enhancing customer service and digital banking capabilities.
Plans to maintain strong capital ratios.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for NTB's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the bank can maintain its strong performance.

Bull Case

If NTB beats earnings expectations again, it could signal robust demand for its services and effective management strategies, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about loan growth and profitability, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a crucial measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from previous quarters could impact investor sentiment.

How has loan growth performed in the last quarter?

Loan growth is essential for revenue generation, and insights into this metric will help assess the bank's future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate NTB's ability to sustain loan growth, especially given its recent performance and market positioning.

Supporting Evidence

NTB has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a surprise.

Recent trends in the banking sector show increasing demand for loans, which NTB may capitalize on.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of NTB's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it follows a series of positive earnings surprises.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.60 or higher would confirm strong profitability and effective management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.40 would raise concerns about the bank's ability to sustain growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.94%

Historical Avg

±0.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±15.9% while NTB has averaged ±0.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

18.4%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NTB beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.25%, confirming strong demand and management effectiveness.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain flat as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a possible drop of around 0.60%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth metrics and demand trends.
2Insights into cost management and operational efficiency.
3Comments on digital banking initiatives and customer acquisition.
4Guidance on future capital ratios and financial health.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting the banking sector.