Equity Profile

NTRS

Northern Trust Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$30.7B

Jul22Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Northern Trust Corporation is a financial services company specializing in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $32 billion, it plays a crucial role in managing investments and safeguarding assets for institutional clients and high-net-worth individuals, making it significant in the financial sector.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of the investments managed by Northern Trust, indicating growth and client trust.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NTRS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+26.66%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Northern Trust reported an EPS of $2.71, surpassing expectations by 14.15%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.02% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are generally optimistic about Northern Trust's upcoming earnings, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Northern Trust continues its trend of strong earnings surprises, it could see significant stock appreciation as investor confidence grows.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or if market conditions worsen, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor sentiment and stock performance.

How has AUM changed this quarter?

AUM growth is a key indicator of client trust and business health, and any significant changes could impact future earnings.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Northern Trust's ability to manage costs effectively, which could lead to higher-than-expected EPS despite market headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates over the last several quarters, indicating strong management performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may reflect underlying volatility that the Street is not fully accounting for.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook and investor sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and AUM as indicators of Northern Trust's financial health and growth potential.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's performance.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.57%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±14.6% while NTRS has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.0%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 4.96Puts (5K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Northern Trust beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.1%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.4%, leading to increased scrutiny of its business model.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AUM growth and client acquisition strategies.
2Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into market conditions affecting asset management and custody services.
4Management's outlook on interest rates and their effect on net interest margin.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the asset management industry.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.

N/A

Assets Under Management (AUM)

AUM reflects the total market value of the investments managed by Northern Trust, indicating growth and client trust.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NTRS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+26.66%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Northern Trust reported an EPS of $2.71, surpassing expectations by 14.15%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 8.02% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are generally optimistic about Northern Trust's upcoming earnings, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If Northern Trust continues its trend of strong earnings surprises, it could see significant stock appreciation as investor confidence grows.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or if market conditions worsen, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor sentiment and stock performance.

How has AUM changed this quarter?

AUM growth is a key indicator of client trust and business health, and any significant changes could impact future earnings.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Northern Trust's ability to manage costs effectively, which could lead to higher-than-expected EPS despite market headwinds.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates over the last several quarters, indicating strong management performance.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may reflect underlying volatility that the Street is not fully accounting for.

Key Risk

If AUM growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook and investor sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching EPS and AUM as indicators of Northern Trust's financial health and growth potential.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's performance.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.57%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±14.6% while NTRS has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.0%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 4.96Puts (5K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Northern Trust beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.1%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.4%, leading to increased scrutiny of its business model.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on AUM growth and client acquisition strategies.
2Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into market conditions affecting asset management and custody services.
4Management's outlook on interest rates and their effect on net interest margin.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the asset management industry.