Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$5.09
EPS est.
$4.78
EPS surprise
+6.49%
1-day move
-1.36%
Nexstar Media Group reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which indicates strong profitability. However, the stock fell by 1.36%, suggesting that investors may have had concerns about revenue performance or future outlook, as no revenue figures were provided. The lack of guidance further adds to uncertainty about the company's direction.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $5.09 | $4.39 | +6.49% |
| Revenue | — | $1.3B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. is a leading broadcasting company in the Communication Services sector, primarily operating television stations across the United States. As the media landscape evolves, Nexstar's ability to adapt to changing viewer habits and advertising trends is crucial for its growth and profitability.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Nexstar reported an EPS of -$5.63, significantly missing expectations, which raised concerns about its profitability. Despite this, the stock reacted positively, gaining 5.86% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-37.46%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.23%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Nexstar's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue after a disappointing last quarter. However, the company's recent performance raises questions about its ability to meet these expectations.
Bull case
If Nexstar can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in its business operations, leading to increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if Nexstar fails to meet its EPS and revenue targets again, it could indicate deeper issues within the company, leading to a further decline in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$4.39Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$1.3BRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its broadcasting services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Nexstar's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $4.39?
Given the significant miss last quarter, the market will closely watch if Nexstar can return to profitability and regain investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue figures will Nexstar report, and how do they compare to the expected $1.3B?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's market position and growth potential, especially after recent struggles.
Est. EPS
$-0.53
Est. Rev
$108M
Impl. Move
±15.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of Nexstar's recent strategic initiatives aimed at improving operational efficiency, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Despite a significant miss last quarter, Nexstar's historical performance shows it can rebound quickly.
Options pricing suggests traders expect higher volatility, indicating potential for a surprise in either direction.
Key risk
If Nexstar's revenue shows unexpected growth, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Nexstar can stabilize its earnings and revenue after a series of disappointing reports.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $4.39 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $1.3B, would confirm a strong recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS significantly below $4.39 and revenue below $1.2B would confirm ongoing challenges for the company.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.77%
Historical Avg
±4.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that traders expect volatility based on the earnings results.
Options are pricing ±7.4% while NXST has averaged ±4.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
52.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.38%
of float
Insider
6.69%
of float
Holders
648
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
3,358,210 sh · $530.8M
10.90%
4.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Nexstar beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.31%, indicating a positive market reaction and renewed investor interest.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity on future guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock value, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 2.28% following such outcomes.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
1,431,230 sh · $226.2M
4.65%
3.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,427,362 sh · $225.6M
4.63%
-0.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,302,020 sh · $205.8M
4.23%
1.3%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
1,082,163 sh · $171.0M
3.51%
9.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.