Industrials·Cargo Ground Transportation·$45.8B
Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) is a leading provider of cargo ground transportation services in the U.S. The company plays a crucial role in the logistics sector, which is vital for the economy, especially as consumer spending and e-commerce continue to grow.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its operations and capture market share in the competitive transportation industry.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
2Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.16%
Avg Stock Reaction
-1.20%
In Q4-2025, Old Dominion reported an EPS of $1.09, beating estimates by 2.83%. The stock reacted positively, rising nearly 10% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Old Dominion to report solid earnings driven by strong demand in the freight sector. However, there are concerns about potential economic headwinds.
Bull Case
If the company beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear Case
If earnings fall short of expectations or if management provides cautious guidance, it could raise concerns about future growth and profitability.
EPS
$1.05Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps gauge how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$1.3BRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its operations and capture market share in the competitive transportation industry.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed $1.05, indicating continued profitability?
A strong EPS could signal effective cost management and robust demand, which would be well-received by investors.
Q2
What does management say about revenue growth in the current economic environment?
Insights into revenue growth will help investors assess the company's ability to navigate potential economic challenges.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Old Dominion's ability to maintain margins despite rising costs, as the company has historically managed expenses well.
Supporting Evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational control.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
Recent freight demand trends suggest continued growth in logistics, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key Risk
If EPS comes in below $1.02, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the company's ability to sustain growth amid economic uncertainties, making these thresholds critical.
Bull Confirmed If
Earnings exceeding $1.05 with revenue growth above $1.3B would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear Confirmed If
Earnings below $1.02 or revenue stagnation could indicate challenges in maintaining growth.
Implied Move
±9.13%
Historical Avg
±5.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.1% while ODFL has averaged ±5.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Old Dominion beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.0% on the first day, confirming strong operational performance.
In-Line / Cautious
An in-line report with cautious commentary could lead to a muted response, reflecting investor uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -9.66%, raising concerns about profitability.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
VERIZON COMMUNICATIO
Apr 27, 2026