Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Apr 28, 2026
EPS actual
$1.23
EPS est.
$1.28
EPS surprise
-3.91%
1-day move
+2.32%
ONEOK's earnings report indicates some pressure on profitability, as reflected in the EPS miss. However, the stock rose by 2.32%, likely due to management's positive outlook on long-term growth and infrastructure investments. Investors may be reassured by the company's strategic focus despite the short-term earnings setback.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.23 | $1.31 | -3.91% |
| Revenue | N/A | $8.7B | N/A |
Overall, management conveyed a sense of cautious optimism despite missing EPS expectations. They emphasized their commitment to strategic investments.
Management acknowledged the challenging market conditions but expressed confidence in long-term growth.
They highlighted ongoing investments in infrastructure as a key focus for the future.
ONEOK, Inc. is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on the storage and transportation of oil and gas. With a market cap of $55 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, making it significant for both energy markets and investors interested in the oil and gas industry.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, ONEOK reported an EPS of $1.55, slightly beating expectations. The stock remained stable following the earnings release.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.46%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.02%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about ONEOK's upcoming earnings, expecting it to meet or slightly exceed EPS and revenue estimates.
Bull case
If ONEOK can leverage strong demand for natural gas and improve operational efficiencies, it could exceed earnings expectations and see a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company faces challenges such as rising costs or lower demand, it may miss earnings expectations, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.31Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$8.7BTotal revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ONEOK's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.31?
A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What does management say about revenue growth in the current market environment?
Insights into revenue growth will help gauge the company's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on opportunities.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate ONEOK's ability to capitalize on rising natural gas demand, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
Recent performance shows a consistent ability to beat EPS estimates, suggesting operational strength.
The options market indicates heightened volatility, which may reflect investor uncertainty about the consensus outlook.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is focused on ONEOK's ability to manage costs and maintain revenue growth amid fluctuating energy prices.
Bull confirmed if
Earnings exceeding $1.31 per share with revenue surpassing $8.7 billion would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Earnings below $1.24 per share or revenue below $6.8 billion would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.98%
Historical Avg
±0.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.7% while OKE has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
25.7%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.83%
of float
Insider
0.15%
of float
Holders
2,046
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
64,537,467 sh · $5.7B
0.00%
8.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ONEOK beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 0.93%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors assess management's commentary on future guidance.
Miss
If ONEOK misses expectations, history indicates an average decline of 1.11%, reflecting investor disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
4
0 buys·2 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$665,004.00–$1.4M
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
43,633,749 sh · $3.8B
0.00%
5.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
41,112,675 sh · $3.6B
0.00%
0.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
30,904,162 sh · $2.7B
0.00%
0.3%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
20,373,418 sh · $1.8B
0.00%
10.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 11, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$500,001.00–$1.0M
Traded Sep 11, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Traded Sep 4, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Aug 31, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$50,001.00–$100,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.