Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
ONEOK, Inc. is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on the storage and transportation of oil and gas....
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well ONEOK is managing its costs and revenues this quarter.
Revenue Growth
Understanding revenue trends will provide insight into demand for ONEOK's services and overall market conditions.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
63%
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.82%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.09%
In the last quarter, ONEOK reported an EPS of $1.23, which was slightly below the estimate of $1.28, resulting in a 2.32% stock increase the following day. The company has not provided specific revenue figures, making it challenging to assess overall performance.
Management Promises & Guidance
Overall expectations for ONEOK are mixed, with some investors hopeful for a rebound in EPS and revenue growth, while others are cautious due to the recent earnings miss.
Bull Case
The optimistic view hinges on a strong recovery in energy demand, leading to improved pricing and margins, which could boost EPS significantly.
Bear Case
Conversely, if energy prices remain volatile or if operational challenges persist, the company may struggle to meet even modest growth expectations.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
N/AEPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well ONEOK is managing its costs and revenues this quarter.
Revenue Growth
N/AUnderstanding revenue trends will provide insight into demand for ONEOK's services and overall market conditions.
Operating Margin
N/AThis metric will help assess how efficiently the company is operating relative to its revenue.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous estimates?
EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a significant deviation from expectations could impact investor confidence.
Q2
What insights can management provide on revenue trends and operational efficiency?
Understanding revenue dynamics and efficiency will be crucial for assessing the company's future growth potential.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in energy demand, which could significantly boost ONEOK's performance this quarter.
Supporting Evidence
Options are pricing a 7.46% move, indicating higher volatility expectations than historical averages.
The company's recent EPS beat rate of 63% suggests a stronger operational performance than anticipated.
Key Risk
If the EPS comes in above $1.30, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and shift investor expectations.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on how well ONEOK can navigate current market conditions and manage its operational efficiency.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $1.30 or better, alongside positive commentary on revenue growth, would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $1.20, coupled with concerns about operational challenges, would confirm the bear case.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±7.46%
Historical Avg
±0.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect notable volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±4.5% while OKE has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
28.0%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy
n=30Fade rate: 19 of 29 (66%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 19 of 29 (66%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If ONEOK beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.76%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting cautious sentiment from investors.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 0.61%.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
2 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Feb 10, 2026 · disclosed Mar 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jan 9, 2026 · disclosed Feb 13, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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SBA Communications Corporation
Traded Nov 18, 2025 · disclosed Dec 15, 2025
$1,001.00–$15,000.00