Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Aug 3, 2026
EPS actual
$1.53
EPS est.
$1.39
EPS surprise
+10.23%
1-day move
-2.83%
ONEOK reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which indicates strong performance relative to analyst expectations. However, the stock fell by 2.83% in response, suggesting that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information or future guidance. The market reaction reflects caution among investors despite the earnings beat.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.53 | $1.40 | +10.23% |
| Revenue | N/A | $8.9B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
ONEOK, Inc. is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on the storage and transportation of oil and gas. With a market cap of $58 billion, the company plays a critical role in the energy supply chain, making it important for investors to monitor its performance as energy demand fluctuates.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, ONEOK reported an EPS of $1.23, falling short of the expected $1.28. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 2.32% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.46%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.02%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about ONEOK's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue. However, the company has recently missed estimates, raising concerns about its ability to meet expectations this quarter.
Bull case
If ONEOK can exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a strong recovery and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
A continuation of missed estimates could lead to further declines in stock price, as investors may lose faith in the company's growth prospects.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.40Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$8.9BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ONEOK's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.40?
A strong EPS performance could indicate improved operational efficiency and market demand, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue figures will ONEOK report, and how do they compare to the expected $8.9 billion?
Revenue performance is a direct reflection of the company's market position and demand for its services, impacting future growth prospects.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent operational improvements that could lead to better-than-expected earnings.
Supporting evidence
ONEOK's historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests potential for positive surprises.
The options market's implied move indicates significant uncertainty, which could be a signal for a larger-than-expected reaction.
Key risk
If revenue comes in significantly above $9 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the potential for recovery against recent performance trends, making this quarter's results critical.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive market sentiment.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.20 would raise serious concerns about the company's profitability and growth trajectory.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.22%
Historical Avg
±0.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±13.2% while OKE has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
33.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.83%
of float
Insider
0.15%
of float
Holders
2,046
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
64,537,467 sh · $5.7B
0.00%
8.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
History suggests that if ONEOK beats expectations, the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but cautious commentary could lead to volatility.
Miss
If ONEOK misses estimates, history indicates a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
4
0 buys·2 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$665,004.00–$1.4M
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
43,633,749 sh · $3.8B
0.00%
5.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
41,112,675 sh · $3.6B
0.00%
0.6%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
30,904,162 sh · $2.7B
0.00%
0.3%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
20,373,418 sh · $1.8B
0.00%
10.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 11, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$500,001.00–$1.0M
Traded Sep 11, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Traded Sep 4, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Aug 31, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$50,001.00–$100,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.