Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a stronger-than-expected rebound in passenger traffic, particularly in the leisure segment.

Supporting evidence

1. 1

   Recent travel trends indicate a surge in leisure travel, which could positively impact passenger numbers.

2. 2

   The company's recent investments in infrastructure may enhance customer experience, driving higher traffic.

3. 3

   Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating market uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.

This quarter's performance hinges on the recovery of air travel demand and the company's ability to manage costs effectively.

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±5.9% while OMAB has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 20 of 30 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.8% (modestly negative historical bias).