Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, May 4, 2026
EPS actual
$0.64
EPS est.
$0.61
EPS surprise
+4.58%
1-day move
-0.96%
ON Semiconductor reported better-than-expected earnings per share, but did not provide revenue figures. The stock reacted negatively, declining by nearly 1%. Investors may be concerned about the lack of revenue data and forward guidance, which could indicate uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.64 | $0.61 | +4.58% |
| Revenue | — | $1.5B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
ON Semiconductor Corporation is a key player in the semiconductor industry, providing essential components for various technologies, including automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics. As demand for chips continues to grow, particularly in areas like electric vehicles and AI, ON's performance is crucial for investors to monitor.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, ON Semiconductor reported an EPS of $0.64, slightly exceeding analyst expectations. However, the stock saw a minor decline the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+2.89%
Avg 1-day reaction
-4.07%
Analysts expect ON Semiconductor to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.61. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth in revenue and profitability.
Bull case
If ON beats expectations, it could signal strong demand for its products, especially in high-growth sectors like electric vehicles and AI, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if ON fails to meet earnings expectations, it may raise concerns about demand fluctuations in the semiconductor market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.61Earnings per share is a critical indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$1.5BRevenue figures reveal the overall sales performance and market demand for ON's products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ON Semiconductor's revenue exceed the $1.5B mark?
Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's market position and demand for its products.
Q2
Can ON maintain or improve its EPS above the consensus of $0.61?
Earnings performance is directly tied to investor sentiment and stock valuation.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating ON's growth potential in the automotive sector, where demand for semiconductors is surging due to electric vehicle production.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends indicate a significant uptick in automotive chip demand, which could drive revenue higher than expected.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors anticipate a more significant shift in sentiment.
Insider selling could indicate a cautious outlook, but it may also reflect profit-taking rather than a lack of confidence in future growth.
Key risk
If automotive revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the market's perception of ON's future prospects.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report will test the company's ability to sustain profitability amidst market fluctuations.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.65 or higher would confirm strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.59 would signal potential weaknesses in demand or cost management.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.23%
Historical Avg
±4.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move after the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.
Options are pricing ±11.2% while ON has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.1%
30d HV
61.5%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$1.2M
15,578 sh
1 insider
Net
$1.2M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$1.2M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.84%
of float
Insider
0.31%
of float
Holders
1,399
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
56,679,393 sh · $4.7B
14.56%
-2.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ON beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.54%, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
A report in line with expectations may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further guidance.
Miss
If ON misses earnings, the stock could drop by an average of -11.90%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $80.00
15,578 sh
$1.2M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackrock Inc.
40,980,739 sh · $3.4B
10.53%
2.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
25,616,396 sh · $2.1B
6.58%
-0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
19,639,331 sh · $1.6B
5.04%
-2.1%
State Street Corporation
18,557,255 sh · $1.5B
4.77%
1.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.