Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Aug 3, 2026
EPS actual
$0.74
EPS est.
$0.72
EPS surprise
+3.35%
1-day move
-1.48%
ON Semiconductor reported better-than-expected earnings per share, but did not provide revenue figures. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.5%. Investors may be concerned about the lack of revenue details and future guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.74 | $0.72 | +3.35% |
| Revenue | N/A | $1.6B | N/A |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
ON Semiconductor Corporation is a key player in the semiconductor industry, focusing on providing innovative solutions for various sectors, including automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics. With the growing demand for advanced technologies like AI and electric vehicles, ON's products are increasingly important in driving efficiency and performance.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, ON Semiconductor reported an EPS of $0.64, beating estimates by 4.58%. However, the stock saw a slight decline the following day, indicating some market caution.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+2.89%
Avg 1-day reaction
-4.07%
Analysts expect ON Semiconductor to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.72 and revenue of $1.6 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth in key segments.
Bull case
If ON beats earnings expectations and shows strong growth in automotive and industrial sectors, it could lead to a positive market reaction and increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about demand and competitive pressures, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.72Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$1.6BRevenue figures will indicate the overall demand for ON's products and its market position, especially in a competitive semiconductor landscape.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ON Semiconductor's revenue growth in the automotive segment exceed expectations?
Given the increasing demand for electric vehicles, strong performance in this area could significantly boost overall results.
Q2
What guidance will management provide for the upcoming quarters regarding demand trends?
Management's outlook on demand will be crucial for investor sentiment and could influence stock performance in the near term.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for ON's automotive segment to drive growth, as recent trends in electric vehicle adoption suggest higher demand than currently anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing indicates a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent industry trends show increased investment in semiconductor technology for automotive applications.
The company's previous earnings surprises indicate a potential for continued outperformance.
Key risk
If automotive revenue growth exceeds 15%, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating ON's ability to sustain growth in a competitive environment, particularly in the automotive and industrial sectors.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue increase of 10% or more in the automotive segment compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A revenue decline or flat growth in key segments would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.91%
Historical Avg
±4.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.9% while ON has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
65.5%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$1.2M
15,578 sh
1 insider
Net
$1.2M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$1.2M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.84%
of float
Insider
0.31%
of float
Holders
1,399
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
56,679,393 sh · $4.7B
14.56%
-2.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ON beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.7%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
Should ON miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential drop of around 11.9%, indicating market disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $80.00
15,578 sh
$1.2M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackrock Inc.
40,980,739 sh · $3.4B
10.53%
2.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
25,616,396 sh · $2.1B
6.58%
-0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
19,639,331 sh · $1.6B
5.04%
-2.1%
State Street Corporation
18,557,255 sh · $1.5B
4.77%
1.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.