Equity Profile

ON

ON Semiconductor Corporation

Information TechnologySemiconductors$31.8B

Aug3Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ON Semiconductor Corporation is a key player in the semiconductor industry, focusing on providing innovative solutions for various sectors, including automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics. As technology continues to advance, particularly in areas like AI and electric vehicles, ON's products are increasingly important for powering these developments.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

0.72

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

1.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ON Semiconductor reported an EPS of $0.64, surpassing expectations by 4.58%. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 0.96% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic, expecting ON to report solid earnings driven by strong demand in the semiconductor sector. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.72, reflecting confidence in the company's performance.

Bull Case

If ON exceeds the EPS estimate and demonstrates strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, particularly in high-growth areas like electric vehicles and AI.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about market demand and competitive pressures, leading to a negative reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.72

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

1.6B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ON Semiconductor's EPS exceed $0.72?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence and suggest strong operational performance.

What guidance will management provide for future revenue growth?

Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating ON's potential for revenue growth driven by increased demand in the automotive and AI sectors, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected performance.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in an 11.91% move, suggesting expectations of volatility that may not align with actual performance.

The historical EPS beat rate of 75% indicates a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds the $1.6B consensus, it could shift market sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects ON's ability to navigate a competitive semiconductor landscape while meeting market demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.75 or higher would confirm strong operational momentum and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would raise concerns about demand and competitive pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.91%

Historical Avg

±5.87%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing a larger move than the stock has historically averaged, suggesting that investors expect volatility.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

65.5%

Calls (295K)P/C Ratio: 0.29Puts (164K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ON beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.7%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 11.90%, indicating significant market disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends in the automotive semiconductor market.
2Insights into supply chain stability and its impact on production.
3Management's commentary on competitive positioning in the semiconductor industry.
4Details on new product launches and their expected market impact.
5Guidance on revenue growth expectations for the next quarter.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

0.72

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

1.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ON Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

-2.45%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ON Semiconductor reported an EPS of $0.64, surpassing expectations by 4.58%. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 0.96% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ON exceeds the EPS estimate and demonstrates strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, particularly in high-growth areas like electric vehicles and AI.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about market demand and competitive pressures, leading to a negative reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.72

Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and helps gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

1.6B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ON Semiconductor's EPS exceed $0.72?

A beat on EPS would reinforce investor confidence and suggest strong operational performance.

What guidance will management provide for future revenue growth?

Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook and market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating ON's potential for revenue growth driven by increased demand in the automotive and AI sectors, which could lead to a stronger-than-expected performance.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in an 11.91% move, suggesting expectations of volatility that may not align with actual performance.

The historical EPS beat rate of 75% indicates a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

Key Risk

If revenue growth significantly exceeds the $1.6B consensus, it could shift market sentiment positively.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it reflects ON's ability to navigate a competitive semiconductor landscape while meeting market demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.75 or higher would confirm strong operational momentum and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would raise concerns about demand and competitive pressures.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±11.91%

Historical Avg

±5.87%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move following the earnings report, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing a larger move than the stock has historically averaged, suggesting that investors expect volatility.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

65.5%

Calls (295K)P/C Ratio: 0.29Puts (164K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ON beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.7%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 11.90%, indicating significant market disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends in the automotive semiconductor market.
2Insights into supply chain stability and its impact on production.
3Management's commentary on competitive positioning in the semiconductor industry.
4Details on new product launches and their expected market impact.
5Guidance on revenue growth expectations for the next quarter.