Equity Profile

ONB

Old National Bancorp

FinancialsRegional Banks$9.3B

Jan26Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including commercial and retail banking. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the Midwest, where it serves both individual and business customers.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Loan Growth

Loan growth reflects the bank's ability to attract and retain customers, which is crucial for revenue generation.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Old National Bancorp's upcoming earnings report, especially given its consistent EPS beat history. However, the lack of specific guidance may lead to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If the bank continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong underlying performance and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing loan growth or declining net interest margins could raise concerns about the bank's future profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported loan growth rate for Q2-2026?

Loan growth is critical for revenue, and any slowdown could signal challenges ahead for the bank.

How will the net interest margin trend in the current economic environment?

Net interest margin affects profitability directly, and any decline could raise concerns among investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on loan growth, which could be more robust than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Historical trends show that regional banks often outperform expectations in rising rate environments.

Old National's recent loan origination trends suggest stronger demand than the market is pricing in.

Key Risk

If loan growth comes in below 3%, it could challenge the current optimistic outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on loan growth and net interest margins, which are critical indicators of the bank's health.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan growth exceeding 5% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A net interest margin below 2.5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Old National Bancorp beats expectations, history suggests a potential 1.39% increase in stock price, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report could lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

If the bank misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.76%, which could raise concerns about its growth trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and demand trends.
2Comments on net interest margin and how it is being managed.
3Insights into customer acquisition strategies.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the banking sector.
5Any changes in regulatory impacts on operations.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Loan Growth

Loan growth reflects the bank's ability to attract and retain customers, which is crucial for revenue generation.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the bank continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong underlying performance and attract more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of slowing loan growth or declining net interest margins could raise concerns about the bank's future profitability.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported loan growth rate for Q2-2026?

Loan growth is critical for revenue, and any slowdown could signal challenges ahead for the bank.

How will the net interest margin trend in the current economic environment?

Net interest margin affects profitability directly, and any decline could raise concerns among investors.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on loan growth, which could be more robust than anticipated.

Supporting Evidence

Historical trends show that regional banks often outperform expectations in rising rate environments.

Old National's recent loan origination trends suggest stronger demand than the market is pricing in.

Key Risk

If loan growth comes in below 3%, it could challenge the current optimistic outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on loan growth and net interest margins, which are critical indicators of the bank's health.

Bull Confirmed If

Loan growth exceeding 5% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A net interest margin below 2.5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Old National Bancorp beats expectations, history suggests a potential 1.39% increase in stock price, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report could lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary on future growth.

Miss

If the bank misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.76%, which could raise concerns about its growth trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and demand trends.
2Comments on net interest margin and how it is being managed.
3Insights into customer acquisition strategies.
4Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the banking sector.
5Any changes in regulatory impacts on operations.