Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$0.65
EPS est.
$0.62
EPS surprise
+4.33%
1-day move
+0.84%
Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.65, exceeding expectations, which contributed to a positive stock reaction of 0.84%. However, there was no revenue data or guidance provided, leaving some uncertainty about future performance. Investors may view the EPS beat as a positive sign, but the lack of additional information could lead to cautious sentiment.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.65 | N/A | +4.33% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and investment services. As a player in the financial sector, its performance is closely tied to interest rates, economic conditions, and consumer spending trends.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly above expectations, leading to a modest stock increase. The bank continues to show resilience in a challenging economic environment.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.57%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.49%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Old National's upcoming earnings report, especially given its track record of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about rising interest rates and economic uncertainty may temper expectations.
Bull case
If Old National can demonstrate strong loan growth and improved net interest margins, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.
Bear case
Conversely, if the bank reports weaker-than-expected loan growth or declining margins, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate a challenging economic landscape.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.63EPS is a key indicator of the bank's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Net Interest Margin
3.5%This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for banks' profitability.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the net interest margin be this quarter?
Given the current interest rate environment, this metric will be crucial in assessing the bank's profitability.
Q2
How much loan growth did Old National experience in Q2-2026?
Loan growth is a key driver of revenue for banks, and any slowdown could signal broader economic issues.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the bank's ability to maintain strong loan growth despite economic headwinds, as Old National has a diverse portfolio that could mitigate risks.
Supporting evidence
The bank has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger underlying performance.
Options pricing indicates a larger expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential surprises.
Management's focus on digital banking could drive new customer acquisition and loan growth.
Key risk
If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the bank's resilience.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will hinge on the bank's ability to maintain profitability amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
Bull confirmed if
A net interest margin of 3.5% or higher would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Loan growth below 3% would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.90%
Historical Avg
±1.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
23.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Old National beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.39%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.
Miss
Should the bank miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -1.50%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Loan Growth
5%Loan growth indicates demand for credit and can signal the bank's ability to expand its business.