Equity Profile

ONB

Old National Bancorp

FinancialsRegional Banks$10.2B

Jan26Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including commercial and consumer banking. As a player in the financial sector, its performance can be influenced by interest rates, economic conditions, and consumer spending trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, which is crucial for bank profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautiously optimistic about ONB's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If ONB continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could see a significant stock price increase as investor confidence grows.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may face a sharp decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given ONB's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

What is the outlook for loan growth in the upcoming quarters?

Loan growth is critical for revenue generation, and any guidance on this will significantly impact investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ONB's ability to maintain strong loan growth despite economic headwinds, which could lead to higher-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

ONB has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating a strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

The bank's focus on expanding its loan portfolio may not be fully reflected in current expectations.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 5% in the earnings report, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating ONB's ability to maintain its earnings momentum in a potentially challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.65 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.58 would support the bear case, suggesting potential challenges ahead.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ONB beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.39%, confirming ongoing strength.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.

Miss

Should ONB miss expectations, the average reaction indicates a potential decline of around -1.76%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth metrics and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's commentary on the economic outlook and its impact on banking operations.
3Insights into net interest margin trends and how they are evolving.
4Details on any new initiatives aimed at expanding customer base or services.
5Guidance on future earnings expectations and any strategic shifts.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, which is crucial for bank profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts are cautiously optimistic about ONB's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.

Bull Case

If ONB continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could see a significant stock price increase as investor confidence grows.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may face a sharp decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given ONB's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

What is the outlook for loan growth in the upcoming quarters?

Loan growth is critical for revenue generation, and any guidance on this will significantly impact investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate ONB's ability to maintain strong loan growth despite economic headwinds, which could lead to higher-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

ONB has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating a strong operational performance.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

The bank's focus on expanding its loan portfolio may not be fully reflected in current expectations.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 5% in the earnings report, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating ONB's ability to maintain its earnings momentum in a potentially challenging economic environment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.65 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.58 would support the bear case, suggesting potential challenges ahead.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ONB beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.39%, confirming ongoing strength.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.

Miss

Should ONB miss expectations, the average reaction indicates a potential decline of around -1.76%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth metrics and how they compare to previous quarters.
2Management's commentary on the economic outlook and its impact on banking operations.
3Insights into net interest margin trends and how they are evolving.
4Details on any new initiatives aimed at expanding customer base or services.
5Guidance on future earnings expectations and any strategic shifts.