Equity Profile

ONB

Old National Bancorp

FinancialsRegional Banks$10.4B

Jan26Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a regional bank that provides a range of financial services, including commercial and retail banking, wealth management, and mortgage services. With a market cap of $10 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the Midwest, where it serves both individual and business customers.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.61

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for banks' profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to focus on improving loan growth.
Enhance customer service and digital banking capabilities.
Maintain strong credit quality and manage risk effectively.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for this quarter are cautiously optimistic, with investors hoping for another EPS beat. However, concerns about loan growth and interest rates may weigh on sentiment.

Bull Case

If ONB can report strong loan growth alongside a solid EPS, it could indicate robust demand and operational efficiency, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if loan growth is weak or if the bank faces increased credit risks, it could lead to disappointing results and a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.61

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Net Interest Margin

N/A

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for banks' profitability.

Loan Growth

N/A

Loan growth indicates demand for credit and can signal overall economic health, impacting future earnings.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected loan growth rate for Q2 2026?

Loan growth is critical for assessing the bank's ability to generate revenue and profitability, especially in a competitive environment.

How is Old National managing its net interest margin in the current interest rate environment?

Understanding the bank's strategy regarding interest rates will provide insight into its future profitability and risk management.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for loan growth due to recent economic trends that favor increased borrowing.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows ONB has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating operational strength.

The current interest rate environment could lead to increased borrowing, benefiting regional banks like ONB.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, which may reflect investor sentiment about potential upside.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could shift the narrative significantly, challenging the cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on loan growth and net interest margins, which are vital for the bank's overall health.

Bull Confirmed If

A loan growth rate of over 5% would confirm the bullish case, indicating strong demand for credit.

Bear Confirmed If

A loan growth rate below 2% would confirm the bearish case, suggesting weakening demand and potential profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ONB beats EPS expectations and reports strong loan growth, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.39%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on EPS or weak loan growth could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of around 1.76%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on loan growth and demand trends.
2Updates on net interest margin management strategies.
3Any commentary on credit quality and risk management.
4Insights into customer service improvements and digital banking initiatives.
5Management's outlook on the economic environment and its impact on operations.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.61

Net Interest Margin

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for banks' profitability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ONB Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.70%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.39%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Old National Bancorp reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.05% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to focus on improving loan growth.
Enhance customer service and digital banking capabilities.
Maintain strong credit quality and manage risk effectively.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for this quarter are cautiously optimistic, with investors hoping for another EPS beat. However, concerns about loan growth and interest rates may weigh on sentiment.

Bull Case

If ONB can report strong loan growth alongside a solid EPS, it could indicate robust demand and operational efficiency, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if loan growth is weak or if the bank faces increased credit risks, it could lead to disappointing results and a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.61

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Net Interest Margin

N/A

This metric reflects the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for banks' profitability.

Loan Growth

N/A

Loan growth indicates demand for credit and can signal overall economic health, impacting future earnings.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected loan growth rate for Q2 2026?

Loan growth is critical for assessing the bank's ability to generate revenue and profitability, especially in a competitive environment.

How is Old National managing its net interest margin in the current interest rate environment?

Understanding the bank's strategy regarding interest rates will provide insight into its future profitability and risk management.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for loan growth due to recent economic trends that favor increased borrowing.

Supporting Evidence

Historical data shows ONB has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating operational strength.

The current interest rate environment could lead to increased borrowing, benefiting regional banks like ONB.

Options pricing suggests higher volatility, which may reflect investor sentiment about potential upside.

Key Risk

If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could shift the narrative significantly, challenging the cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on loan growth and net interest margins, which are vital for the bank's overall health.

Bull Confirmed If

A loan growth rate of over 5% would confirm the bullish case, indicating strong demand for credit.

Bear Confirmed If

A loan growth rate below 2% would confirm the bearish case, suggesting weakening demand and potential profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±7.90%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±7.9% while ONB has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

23.7%

Calls (0)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (100)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ONB beats EPS expectations and reports strong loan growth, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.39%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty.

Miss

A miss on EPS or weak loan growth could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of around 1.76%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on loan growth and demand trends.
2Updates on net interest margin management strategies.
3Any commentary on credit quality and risk management.
4Insights into customer service improvements and digital banking initiatives.
5Management's outlook on the economic environment and its impact on operations.