Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$0.86
EPS est.
$0.85
EPS surprise
+0.82%
1-day move
-0.59%
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading retailer in the automotive parts and accessories sector, serving both professional mechanics and DIY customers. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, the company's performance is closely tied to consumer spending and vehicle maintenance trends.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, O'Reilly reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.72, surpassing expectations by 4.2%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+11.04%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.16%
Overall, analysts expect O'Reilly to show solid performance driven by strong consumer demand for automotive parts and services. However, concerns about rising costs and competition may temper enthusiasm.
Bull case
If O'Reilly can demonstrate strong same-store sales growth and maintain or improve gross margins, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports weaker-than-expected sales growth or declining margins, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and profitability.
Key metrics to watch
Same-Store Sales Growth
5%This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing compared to previous periods, reflecting customer demand and operational efficiency.
Gross Margin
48%Gross margin is crucial for understanding the company's profitability and pricing strategy, especially in a competitive retail environment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected same-store sales growth for Q2 2026?
This figure will be crucial in assessing consumer demand and the company's ability to drive sales in a competitive market.
Q2
How is O'Reilly managing rising costs and supply chain challenges?
Understanding the company's strategies to mitigate these issues will be key to evaluating its profitability and operational resilience.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating O'Reilly's ability to maintain strong margins despite rising costs, given its historical resilience in pricing power.
Supporting evidence
The company has a strong track record of managing costs effectively, even in challenging environments.
Options pricing suggests a higher volatility expectation than historical performance, indicating potential for a larger move.
Recent consumer trends show increased spending on vehicle maintenance, which could benefit O'Reilly.
Key risk
If same-store sales growth exceeds 6%, it could significantly shift market sentiment toward a more bullish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether O'Reilly can sustain its growth amid rising costs and competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
Same-store sales growth of 6% or better, with gross margin holding at 48% or higher.
Bear confirmed if
Same-store sales growth below 4%, or gross margin declining below 46%.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.18%
Historical Avg
±0.5%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.18% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±3.2% while ORLY has averaged ±0.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
33.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.84%
of float
Insider
0.50%
of float
Holders
2,233
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
64,611,159 sh · $5.5B
7.99%
-0.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If O'Reilly beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.42% on average, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors weigh cautious commentary on future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 0.03%, signaling potential issues with demand or profitability.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
0 buys·3 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$31,003.00–$115,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Store Expansion
20 new storesThe number of new stores opened can signal growth potential and market expansion, which is vital for long-term performance.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
54,153,543 sh · $4.6B
6.69%
-1.1%
State Street Corporation
36,716,335 sh · $3.1B
4.54%
-0.0%
Invesco Ltd.
26,613,289 sh · $2.3B
3.29%
1.2%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
24,183,471 sh · $2.0B
2.99%
-1.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 2, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Aug 31, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Apr 24, 2026 · disclosed May 27, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.