Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, May 4, 2026
EPS actual
$1.73
EPS est.
$1.34
EPS surprise
+29.10%
1-day move
-0.21%
Otter Tail Corporation reported a strong earnings per share, exceeding analyst expectations significantly. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.21%. The lack of revenue details and management commentary may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.73 | $1.42 | +29.10% |
| Revenue | N/A | $339M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) operates in the utilities sector, primarily focusing on electric utilities. The company plays a crucial role in providing reliable energy services, which are essential for both residential and commercial customers. As the energy landscape evolves, Otter Tail's performance may be influenced by regulatory changes and shifts towards renewable energy sources.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Otter Tail reported an EPS of $1.23, exceeding expectations by 6.03%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.34% the following day.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.11%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.16%
Analysts expect Otter Tail to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.42. The market is cautiously optimistic about revenue growth amidst ongoing energy sector challenges.
Bull case
If Otter Tail exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust operational performance and positive market sentiment.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or reports stagnant revenue, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate industry challenges.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.42Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue
$339MRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is vital for assessing overall business health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Otter Tail achieve an EPS of $1.42 or higher?
This specific EPS target is critical as it reflects the company's profitability and could significantly impact investor sentiment.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for this quarter?
Revenue performance will indicate the company's growth trajectory and its ability to adapt to market conditions.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent operational efficiencies that Otter Tail has implemented, which could drive better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 100% beat rate in the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that the market may be overly cautious.
Key risk
If Otter Tail's revenue exceeds $339M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Otter Tail can maintain its earnings momentum in a challenging energy environment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.45 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.34 would validate the bear case, suggesting potential struggles in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.97%
Historical Avg
±1.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.0% while OTTR has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
25.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
79.01%
of float
Insider
2.08%
of float
Holders
465
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,557,596 sh · $577.5M
15.62%
2.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Otter Tail beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.72%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a drop of around 0.71%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,996,322 sh · $263.9M
7.14%
1.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,891,243 sh · $166.6M
4.50%
1.4%
State Street Corporation
1,645,782 sh · $144.9M
3.92%
4.9%
LSV Asset Management
1,186,461 sh · $104.5M
2.83%
13.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.