Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.02
EPS est.
$0.19
EPS surprise
-89.42%
1-day move
+9.80%
Blue Owl Capital reported a significant miss on EPS, with actual earnings falling far short of expectations. Despite this, the stock rose by 9.8%, which may indicate investor optimism or a reaction to other factors not detailed in the earnings report. The lack of revenue data adds uncertainty to the overall financial picture.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.02 | $0.18 | -89.42% |
| Revenue | N/A | $693M | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on the numerical results.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. is a financial services company focused on asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in managing investments and providing financial solutions, which are crucial in today's evolving economic landscape.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Blue Owl reported an EPS of $0.24, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 3.57% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-22.61%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.04%
Analysts expect Blue Owl to report earnings of $0.18 per share on revenues of $693 million. The company has shown mixed performance in previous quarters, leading to cautious sentiment.
Bull case
If Blue Owl exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal effective management and increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate market challenges, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.18Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
693MTotal revenue gives insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Blue Owl's EPS meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $0.18?
A strong EPS performance is crucial for restoring investor confidence after previous misses.
Q2
What revenue figure will Blue Owl report, and how does it compare to the $693 million consensus?
Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and operational effectiveness.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Blue Owl's potential for a strong recovery, given its recent EPS beat and the current market environment.
Supporting evidence
The stock has shown resilience despite past earnings misses, indicating underlying strength.
Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, hinting at potential surprises.
Key risk
If the company reports significantly higher revenue growth, it could challenge the cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of mixed results, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
Earnings exceeding $0.18 per share and revenue surpassing $693 million would confirm a bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.17 or revenue falling short of $635 million would indicate ongoing challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.3%
Historical Avg
±4.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.3% while OWL has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.2%
30d HV
43.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: 5 of 6 (83%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 5 of 6 (83%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.2%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.65%
of float
Insider
0.12%
of float
Holders
702
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
67,704,044 sh · $616.8M
9.90%
-21.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Blue Owl beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest uptick, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable but could still react to management's commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of around 4% following earnings misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Capital World Investors
53,867,616 sh · $490.7M
7.88%
-5.1%
Capital Research Global Investors
43,196,688 sh · $393.5M
6.32%
-25.6%
ICONIQ Capital, LLC
34,353,844 sh · $313.0M
5.02%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
31,602,257 sh · $287.9M
4.62%
-5.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.