Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$0.22
EPS est.
$0.22
EPS surprise
+1.85%
1-day move
+6.39%
Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates in the financial sector, focusing on asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $20 billion, the company plays a significant role in managing investments and providing financial services, which are crucial in today's economy as investors seek reliable management of their assets.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Blue Owl reported an EPS of $0.02, significantly below the expected $0.19, leading to a 9.80% increase in stock price the following day. This unexpected result raised concerns about the company's performance and future guidance.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-22.61%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.04%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Blue Owl's upcoming earnings, with expectations set for a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the company has faced challenges recently, leading to mixed sentiments.
Bull case
If Blue Owl can meet or exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a strong rebound in performance, boosting investor confidence and stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise further doubts about its operational efficiency and ability to generate consistent profits.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.23Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's consensus is particularly important after a significant miss last quarter.
Revenue
$714MRevenue figures will help gauge the company's ability to generate income amidst market fluctuations, with expectations set at $714 million.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Blue Owl achieve an EPS of $0.23 or higher?
This figure is crucial for restoring investor confidence after last quarter's significant miss.
Q2
What will the revenue figure be relative to the $714 million consensus?
Revenue performance will indicate the company's ability to grow and sustain operations in a competitive market.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±18.6%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Blue Owl's potential for a rebound, as the recent miss could be attributed to one-off factors rather than a trend.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Past performance shows that the stock tends to react positively after a significant miss, indicating potential for recovery.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $0.23, it could shift sentiment dramatically in favor of the bulls.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal in assessing whether Blue Owl can stabilize its earnings after a series of misses.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.23 or higher would confirm a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.23 would reinforce concerns about the company's operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.61%
Historical Avg
±4.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.6% while OWL has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
49.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.65%
of float
Insider
0.12%
of float
Holders
702
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
67,704,044 sh · $616.8M
9.90%
-21.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Blue Owl beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.45%, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in management's future outlook.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of 1.48%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Capital World Investors
53,867,616 sh · $490.7M
7.88%
-5.1%
Capital Research Global Investors
43,196,688 sh · $393.5M
6.32%
-25.6%
ICONIQ Capital, LLC
34,353,844 sh · $313.0M
5.02%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
31,602,257 sh · $287.9M
4.62%
-5.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.