Equity Profile

OXY

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$54.5B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is an integrated oil and gas company involved in the exploration, production, and distribution of oil and natural gas. As a major player in the energy sector, its performance can be influenced by global oil prices, regulatory changes, and shifts in energy demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Not available

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

OXY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+44.21%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Occidental reported an EPS of $1.06, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.62, marking a 70% surprise. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.54% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Occidental's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent strong performance in Q1-2026. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.

Bull Case

If Occidental continues to beat EPS expectations and shows strong production levels, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports declining production levels, it could raise concerns about its profitability and market position, leading to a negative response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported production levels for Q2-2026?

Production levels are critical for assessing revenue potential and operational efficiency, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the current oil price environment and its impact on future earnings?

Management's outlook on oil prices will provide insight into potential revenue and profitability trends, which are vital for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Occidental's ability to maintain production levels despite potential volatility in oil prices, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant market reaction.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 500,000 barrels per day, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment in the market.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production levels and their impact on profitability in a fluctuating oil price environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 500,000 barrels per day would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decline below 450,000 barrels per day could signal operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.57%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.57% following the earnings report, suggesting that traders anticipate some volatility.

Options are pricing ±3.6% while OXY has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

43.0%

Calls (4.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.53Puts (1.4M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Occidental beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 0.08% on the first day, indicating a potential for further gains.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see limited movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.65%, which could raise concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and its impact on future earnings.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into market demand for oil and gas products.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Not available

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Not available

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

OXY Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+44.21%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.10%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Occidental reported an EPS of $1.06, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.62, marking a 70% surprise. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.54% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Occidental continues to beat EPS expectations and shows strong production levels, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports declining production levels, it could raise concerns about its profitability and market position, leading to a negative response.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported production levels for Q2-2026?

Production levels are critical for assessing revenue potential and operational efficiency, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the current oil price environment and its impact on future earnings?

Management's outlook on oil prices will provide insight into potential revenue and profitability trends, which are vital for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Occidental's ability to maintain production levels despite potential volatility in oil prices, which could lead to stronger-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant market reaction.

Key Risk

If production levels exceed 500,000 barrels per day, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment in the market.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around production levels and their impact on profitability in a fluctuating oil price environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Production levels exceeding 500,000 barrels per day would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decline below 450,000 barrels per day could signal operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±3.57%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.57% following the earnings report, suggesting that traders anticipate some volatility.

Options are pricing ±3.6% while OXY has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

43.0%

Calls (4.1M)P/C Ratio: 0.53Puts (1.4M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Occidental beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 0.08% on the first day, indicating a potential for further gains.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see limited movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.65%, which could raise concerns about future performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production levels and operational efficiency.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and its impact on future earnings.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into market demand for oil and gas products.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the energy sector.