Equity Profile

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$4.1B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and performance. Investors will be keen to see if Par Pacific meets or exceeds expectations this quarter.

$8.15

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. This quarter's revenue expectations will help gauge overall business health.

$2.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $4 billion, it plays a significant role in the energy sector, which is currently influenced by fluctuating oil prices and evolving energy policies.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, falling short of the expected $1.04, resulting in a 25.36% surprise. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 2.73% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Par Pacific's upcoming earnings, with expectations set for a strong EPS and revenue performance. However, the recent earnings miss has raised concerns.

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can leverage favorable oil prices and improve refining margins, it could exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet EPS and revenue targets again, it may face further investor skepticism, leading to a potential decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$8.15

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and performance. Investors will be keen to see if Par Pacific meets or exceeds expectations this quarter.

Revenue

$2.4B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. This quarter's revenue expectations will help gauge overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Par Pacific achieve an EPS of at least $8.15?

Meeting or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after the last quarter's miss.

What is the revenue outlook for this quarter compared to the consensus of $2.4B?

Revenue performance will indicate the company's ability to capitalize on market conditions and demand for refined products.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent oil price increases on Par Pacific's refining margins, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating heightened expectations that could be based on recent market trends.

Par Pacific has a history of surprising on the upside, as seen in previous quarters where they exceeded expectations significantly.

Key Risk

If refining margins improve significantly due to favorable oil prices, it could lead to a substantial earnings beat.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing earnings report, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $8.15 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

Failing to meet the EPS target of $8.15 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but management commentary will be key in shaping future outlook.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, as investor confidence may wane.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they are impacted by current oil prices.
2Management's commentary on demand trends for refined products.
3Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and market conditions.
5Any changes in strategic direction or investment plans.

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Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and performance. Investors will be keen to see if Par Pacific meets or exceeds expectations this quarter.

$8.15

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. This quarter's revenue expectations will help gauge overall business health.

$2.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, falling short of the expected $1.04, resulting in a 25.36% surprise. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 2.73% the next day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Par Pacific's upcoming earnings, with expectations set for a strong EPS and revenue performance. However, the recent earnings miss has raised concerns.

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can leverage favorable oil prices and improve refining margins, it could exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet EPS and revenue targets again, it may face further investor skepticism, leading to a potential decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$8.15

EPS is a key indicator of a company's profitability and performance. Investors will be keen to see if Par Pacific meets or exceeds expectations this quarter.

Revenue

$2.4B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand. This quarter's revenue expectations will help gauge overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Par Pacific achieve an EPS of at least $8.15?

Meeting or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after the last quarter's miss.

What is the revenue outlook for this quarter compared to the consensus of $2.4B?

Revenue performance will indicate the company's ability to capitalize on market conditions and demand for refined products.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent oil price increases on Par Pacific's refining margins, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a significant move, indicating heightened expectations that could be based on recent market trends.

Par Pacific has a history of surprising on the upside, as seen in previous quarters where they exceeded expectations significantly.

Key Risk

If refining margins improve significantly due to favorable oil prices, it could lead to a substantial earnings beat.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing earnings report, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $8.15 or better would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

Failing to meet the EPS target of $8.15 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may remain stable, but management commentary will be key in shaping future outlook.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, as investor confidence may wane.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margins and how they are impacted by current oil prices.
2Management's commentary on demand trends for refined products.
3Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and market conditions.
5Any changes in strategic direction or investment plans.