Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Aug 4, 2026
EPS actual
$10.10
EPS est.
$8.20
EPS surprise
+23.17%
1-day move
+0.16%
Par Pacific Holdings reported strong earnings with an EPS that significantly exceeded expectations, which likely contributed to the slight increase in stock price. However, the lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the overall performance and future outlook. Investors may be cautiously optimistic but should await further details for a clearer picture.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $10.10 | $8.15 | +23.17% |
| Revenue | N/A | $2.4B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company plays a significant role in the energy supply chain, particularly in the refining of crude oil into various petroleum products.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, which was below the expected $1.04, resulting in a 25.36% surprise to the downside. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.73% the following day despite the miss.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+77.10%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.31%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Par Pacific's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue. The consensus estimates suggest a strong performance compared to the previous quarter.
Bull case
If Par Pacific meets or exceeds the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a recovery in profitability and operational efficiency, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it may raise concerns about its operational challenges and market position, potentially leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$8.15Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$2.4BRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Par Pacific achieve an EPS of $8.15 or better?
This figure is crucial as it will indicate the company's ability to recover from previous misses and meet market expectations.
Q2
What will the revenue figure be relative to the $2.4 billion consensus?
Revenue performance will reflect demand for Par Pacific's products and overall market conditions in the energy sector.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in Par Pacific's earnings, given the recent volatility in oil prices and refining margins.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 25.91% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the company's actual performance.
The previous quarter's miss did not lead to a substantial long-term decline, suggesting resilience in investor sentiment.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in below $7.72, it could significantly undermine confidence in the company's recovery narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal as they follow a disappointing Q1 and will be closely scrutinized for signs of improvement.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $8.15 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong operational recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $7.72 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about the company's profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±25.91%
Historical Avg
±1.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
62.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Energy
Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of -0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
103.92%
of float
Insider
2.63%
of float
Holders
513
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
7,169,208 sh · $617.4M
14.31%
-3.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.05%, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with estimates, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of about 1.26%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
3,345,818 sh · $288.1M
6.68%
8.3%
Invesco Ltd.
2,745,999 sh · $236.5M
5.48%
37.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,129,297 sh · $183.4M
4.25%
2.0%
American Century Companies Inc
2,108,900 sh · $181.6M
4.21%
16.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.