Equity Profile

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$3.6B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins directly impact Par Pacific's profitability, and any changes can signal how well the company is managing costs and pricing.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company plays a significant role in the energy supply chain, particularly in the refining of crude oil into usable products. As energy demand fluctuates, Par Pacific's performance can be closely tied to global oil prices and refining margins.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, missing estimates by 25.36%. Despite this, the stock gained 2.73% the next day, indicating some investor optimism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Par Pacific's upcoming earnings are mixed, with uncertainty surrounding refining margins and oil prices. Investors are keen to see if the company can recover from its recent EPS miss.

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can report strong refining margins and a rebound in EPS, it could signal a recovery in profitability, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to struggle with margins and reports another EPS miss, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for Par Pacific's profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices in the coming months?

Management's perspective on oil prices will provide insight into potential revenue and margin trends, which are vital for future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in refining margins due to recent supply constraints in the oil market.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 25.91% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The recent EPS miss may have created overly cautious sentiment, potentially overlooking operational improvements.

Par Pacific's past performance shows a tendency to recover quickly from misses, suggesting resilience.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could invalidate the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to manage refining margins amidst fluctuating oil prices, which will be critical this quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

A refining margin above $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

A refining margin below $10 per barrel would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.05%, confirming a positive outlook on margins.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential drop of around 1.26%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margins and how they compare to industry benchmarks.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and their impact on operations.
3Any updates on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into market demand for refined products in the upcoming quarters.

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Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors will closely monitor this quarter.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins directly impact Par Pacific's profitability, and any changes can signal how well the company is managing costs and pricing.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, missing estimates by 25.36%. Despite this, the stock gained 2.73% the next day, indicating some investor optimism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can report strong refining margins and a rebound in EPS, it could signal a recovery in profitability, driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to struggle with margins and reports another EPS miss, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for Par Pacific's profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices in the coming months?

Management's perspective on oil prices will provide insight into potential revenue and margin trends, which are vital for future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in refining margins due to recent supply constraints in the oil market.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 25.91% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The recent EPS miss may have created overly cautious sentiment, potentially overlooking operational improvements.

Par Pacific's past performance shows a tendency to recover quickly from misses, suggesting resilience.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could invalidate the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to manage refining margins amidst fluctuating oil prices, which will be critical this quarter.

Bull Confirmed If

A refining margin above $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

A refining margin below $10 per barrel would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.05%, confirming a positive outlook on margins.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential drop of around 1.26%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Details on refining margins and how they compare to industry benchmarks.
2Management's outlook on oil prices and their impact on operations.
3Any updates on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
4Insights into market demand for refined products in the upcoming quarters.