Equity Profile

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$2.8B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, which is crucial in the competitive energy sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a mid-cap company with a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the energy market, especially as global demand for energy continues to evolve amid economic changes.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, missing estimates by 25.36%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.73% the next day despite the miss.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Par Pacific's upcoming earnings, especially after a mixed performance in previous quarters. The focus will be on how the company addresses refining margins and overall profitability.

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can demonstrate strong refining margins and improved EPS, it could signal a recovery in profitability, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for Q2-2026?

Refining margins are crucial for profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management plan to address the recent earnings misses?

Investors will be looking for a clear strategy to improve performance and restore confidence in the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in refining margins, which could significantly boost profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 25.91% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent history of EPS surprises suggests that it could outperform expectations despite recent misses.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a pattern of mixed results, and investors are keen to see if the company can turn things around.

Bull Confirmed If

A refining margin improvement of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If EPS falls below $0.50, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 29 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.5%, with a raw directional average of -0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.26% on average, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see minimal movement as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.26%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining capacity and operational efficiency improvements.
2Management's outlook on global oil demand and pricing trends.
3Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
4Insights into competitive positioning within the oil and gas sector.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the refining industry.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, which is crucial in the competitive energy sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $0.78, missing estimates by 25.36%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.73% the next day despite the miss.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Par Pacific can demonstrate strong refining margins and improved EPS, it could signal a recovery in profitability, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations and fails to provide a clear path to profitability, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for Q2-2026?

Refining margins are crucial for profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management plan to address the recent earnings misses?

Investors will be looking for a clear strategy to improve performance and restore confidence in the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in refining margins, which could significantly boost profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 25.91% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent history of EPS surprises suggests that it could outperform expectations despite recent misses.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a pattern of mixed results, and investors are keen to see if the company can turn things around.

Bull Confirmed If

A refining margin improvement of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If EPS falls below $0.50, it would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.91%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating heightened uncertainty around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±25.9% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

62.9%

Calls (4K)P/C Ratio: 0.55Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 17 of 29 (59%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.26% on average, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see minimal movement as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.26%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining capacity and operational efficiency improvements.
2Management's outlook on global oil demand and pricing trends.
3Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
4Insights into competitive positioning within the oil and gas sector.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes affecting the refining industry.