Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±8.2%
EPS beat rate
75%
Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas storage and transportation. With a market cap of $27 billion, the company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain, which is vital for both domestic and international markets.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Pembina reported an EPS of $0.95, significantly beating expectations by 96.7%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.04% the following day, indicating a positive market reaction.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+59.56%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.25%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Pembina's upcoming earnings, given its recent strong performance. However, the lack of analyst estimates makes it challenging to gauge market expectations accurately.
Bull case
If Pembina continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
On the other hand, if Pembina fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining revenue, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, especially given the current market volatility.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
Given the company's recent strong performance, the EPS figure will be critical in determining if Pembina can maintain its growth trajectory.
Q2
How has revenue changed compared to the previous quarter?
Revenue trends are essential for understanding the company's market position and operational effectiveness, especially in the current economic climate.
Est. EPS
$1.98
Est. Rev
$113.6B
Impl. Move
±4.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Pembina's potential for continued earnings growth based on its recent performance and operational efficiencies.
Supporting evidence
Pembina has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, suggesting strong management and operational capabilities.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility, which could be a sign of underlying strength.
The company's recent revenue growth trends indicate a solid market position despite broader economic challenges.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $0.50, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Pembina's ability to sustain its recent earnings momentum amidst fluctuating energy prices.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.50 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.17%
Historical Avg
±0.4%
The options market is pricing in an 8.17% move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.2% while PBA has averaged ±0.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
18.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 17 of 30 (57%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 17 of 30 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
61.07%
of float
Insider
0.04%
of float
Holders
718
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Royal Bank of Canada
45,437,977 sh · $2.1B
7.81%
17.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Pembina beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.08%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results come in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of around 0.76%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Bank of Montreal /CAN/
21,611,518 sh · $993.5M
3.72%
2.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
16,738,025 sh · $769.4M
2.88%
1.2%
ClearBridge Investments, LLC
13,315,671 sh · $612.1M
2.29%
57.7%
CIBC World Market, Inc.
12,961,055 sh · $595.8M
2.23%
5.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 27, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.