Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 30, 2026
EPS actual
$1.65
EPS est.
$-0.79
EPS surprise
+307.81%
1-day move
+0.53%
PBF Energy's strong EPS performance significantly exceeded expectations, which likely contributed to the slight increase in stock price. However, with no revenue data provided and no guidance updates, investors may remain cautious about future performance. The stock's modest rise suggests a positive reaction to the earnings surprise, but uncertainty remains due to the lack of additional context from management.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.65 | $-0.78 | +307.81% |
| Revenue | N/A | $7.6B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
PBF Energy Inc. is an energy company focused on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the energy sector, especially as global energy demands evolve and the market faces challenges such as fluctuating oil prices and regulatory changes.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, PBF Energy reported an earnings surprise with an EPS of $0.66, significantly higher than the expected loss. However, the stock fell by nearly 6% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+138.21%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.71%
Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter for PBF Energy, with a consensus EPS loss of $-0.78. This reflects concerns over profitability amid volatile oil prices and operational costs.
Bull case
If PBF can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue, it could raise concerns about its financial health and lead to a further decline in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.78Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs amid fluctuating oil prices.
Revenue
$7.6BRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for refined products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will PBF Energy's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-0.78?
A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue figures will PBF report compared to the consensus of $7.6 billion?
Revenue performance will reflect market demand and the company's ability to capitalize on refining margins, impacting future growth prospects.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus is overly pessimistic about PBF's ability to manage costs and generate revenue, given recent operational improvements that may not be fully reflected in estimates.
Supporting evidence
PBF's recent EPS surprises indicate potential for better-than-expected performance.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility and potential upside.
Key risk
If PBF reports an EPS significantly better than $-0.78, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around PBF's ability to manage costs and generate revenue in a challenging oil market.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of better than $-0.35 and revenue exceeding $9.0 billion would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-1.27 and revenue below $5.8 billion would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.88%
Historical Avg
±6.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.4% while PBF has averaged ±6.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
59.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 9 of 20 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 9 of 20 faded and 11 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.6%, with a raw directional average of +0.8% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$18.3M
220,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$18.3M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
90.75%
of float
Insider
13.81%
of float
Holders
583
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
13,312,561 sh · $1.1B
11.23%
11.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If PBF beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise, confirming operational improvements and market demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 4%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$18.3M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $84.13
120,000 sh
$10.1M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $82.00
100,000 sh
$8.2M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
6,125,377 sh · $512.6M
5.17%
13.8%
State Street Corporation
5,514,966 sh · $461.5M
4.65%
3.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
5,410,856 sh · $452.8M
4.56%
9.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
5,130,165 sh · $429.3M
4.33%
17.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.