Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$-2.30
EPS est.
$-1.85
EPS surprise
-23.99%
1-day move
+2.62%
Vaxcyte's earnings report shows a larger-than-expected loss per share, which typically raises concerns among investors. However, the stock reacted positively, rising by 2.62%. This increase may reflect investor sentiment or optimism despite the disappointing EPS results.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-2.30 | $-1.77 | -23.99% |
| Revenue | $0M | $0M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Vaxcyte, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. Operating in the healthcare sector, Vaxcyte aims to address significant public health challenges, making its innovations crucial in today's health landscape.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Vaxcyte reported an EPS of -5.63, significantly missing analyst expectations. The stock saw a modest increase of 1.81% the following day, indicating some investor optimism despite the disappointing results.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-46.50%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.36%
Analysts expect continued losses for Vaxcyte, with a consensus EPS of -1.77. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of progress in the company's vaccine development pipeline.
Bull case
If Vaxcyte can show improved clinical trial results or announce new partnerships, it could lead to a more favorable outlook and potentially drive the stock higher.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to provide any positive updates or continues to miss earnings expectations, it could lead to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
-1.77Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health. Investors will be keen to see if Vaxcyte can narrow its losses this quarter.
Revenue
0MWhile no revenue is expected this quarter, any updates on future revenue streams or partnerships could impact investor sentiment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Vaxcyte provide any updates on its vaccine pipeline or clinical trials?
Any positive news regarding vaccine development could significantly influence investor confidence and stock performance.
Q2
How does Vaxcyte plan to address its ongoing losses?
Investors will be looking for a clear strategy to improve financial performance, which could impact future valuations.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Vaxcyte's potential for a turnaround, especially if there are positive developments in its vaccine pipeline that have not been fully priced in.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 10.94% move, indicating expectations for significant volatility.
Vaxcyte's recent history of surprises suggests that it could outperform expectations if there are any positive updates.
Key risk
If Vaxcyte announces a significant partnership or positive trial results, it could drastically shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating Vaxcyte's ability to control costs while advancing its vaccine development, making this quarter's results critical.
Bull confirmed if
A narrower EPS loss of -1.50 or better would indicate progress in managing expenses and could boost investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than -1.80 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial health and future prospects.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.94%
Historical Avg
±2.11%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that investors expect volatility based on the results.
Options price a 10.94% move but the stock has averaged only 2.11% over the last 8 quarters — setup is rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
37.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care
Fade rate: 4 of 18 (22%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 14 of 18 (78%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.8%, with a raw directional average of +3.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$3.3M
39,250 sh
2 insiders
Net
$3.3M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades
$1.7M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
113.47%
of float
Insider
0.50%
of float
Holders
458
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
20,852,907 sh · $1.4B
14.01%
26.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Vaxcyte beats expectations and provides positive updates, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.11% on the next trading day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the information and await further guidance.
Miss
If Vaxcyte misses expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.32%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
3 buys·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
3 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$1.6M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $86.74
19,000 sh
$1.6M
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $86.74
18,000 sh
$1.6M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $56.65
2,155 sh
$122,089.37
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $57.09
95 sh
$5,423.93
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Jupiter Topco LLC
17,965,847 sh · $1.2B
12.07%
100.0%
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.
12,207,450 sh · $817.4M
8.20%
0.7%
Blackrock Inc.
12,068,129 sh · $808.1M
8.11%
10.0%
RA Capital Management, L.P.
11,474,599 sh · $768.3M
7.71%
Flat
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 16, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 13, 2026 · disclosed Jun 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded May 12, 2026 · disclosed Jun 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.