Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
EPS actual
$0.35
EPS est.
$0.23
EPS surprise
+53.51%
1-day move
-2.37%
Pegasystems reported a strong earnings per share that exceeded expectations, indicating better profitability than analysts anticipated. However, the stock fell by 2.37%, suggesting that investors may have been disappointed by the lack of revenue information and guidance. The absence of management commentary may have contributed to uncertainty among investors.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.35 | N/A | +53.51% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Pegasystems Inc. is a technology company that specializes in application software, helping businesses automate and improve their operations. With a market cap of $6 billion, Pegasystems is positioned in the growing information technology sector, which is increasingly focused on cloud solutions and digital transformation.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Pegasystems reported an EPS of $0.46, falling short of expectations by nearly 30%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping over 10% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+272.05%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.17%
Overall, there is uncertainty surrounding Pegasystems' upcoming earnings report, especially after a significant miss last quarter. Investors are keen to see if the company can rebound.
Bull case
If Pegasystems can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could restore investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again or provides weak guidance, it could reinforce concerns about its growth trajectory and lead to further declines.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.65EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is crucial for long-term success.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Pegasystems report an EPS above $0.65?
This EPS figure is critical as it sets the benchmark for investor expectations, especially after last quarter's miss.
Q2
What is the outlook for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?
Investors will be looking for clear guidance on revenue trends to assess the company's growth potential moving forward.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Pegasystems' potential for recovery, especially given its historical ability to surprise on the upside.
Supporting evidence
Despite a significant miss last quarter, Pegasystems has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for positive surprises.
Options pricing suggests a much larger move than historical averages, indicating that investors are expecting volatility and potential for a rebound.
Key risk
If Pegasystems can exceed the $0.65 EPS estimate, it could shift sentiment dramatically.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is currently weighing Pegasystems' ability to bounce back from a disappointing previous quarter, making these thresholds critical.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.70 or higher would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.50 would signal ongoing challenges and could lead to further stock declines.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±22.72%
Historical Avg
±3.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±22.7% while PEGA has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
52.2%
Cross-company pattern from 29 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Information Technology
Fade rate: 9 of 29 (31%)
This setup has occurred 29 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 20 of 29 (69%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 8.2%, with a raw directional average of +3.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$34,150.00
1,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$34,150.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
60.98%
of float
Insider
47.83%
of float
Holders
588
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
9,573,688 sh · $328.9M
5.82%
-0.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Pegasystems beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 1.22% on the first day, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see muted movement as investors reassess.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 10.30%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Customer Retention Rate
N/AA high customer retention rate indicates satisfaction with Pegasystems' products and services, which is vital for recurring revenue.
$34,150.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $34.15
1,000 sh
$34,150.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
6,455,250 sh · $221.7M
3.93%
1.5%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
4,919,642 sh · $169.0M
2.99%
8.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
4,128,720 sh · $141.8M
2.51%
-0.8%
Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
3,031,497 sh · $104.1M
1.84%
27.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.