Equity Profile

PEN

Penumbra, Inc.

Health CareHealth Care Equipment$12.9B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Penumbra, Inc. is a healthcare company that develops innovative medical devices for the treatment of various conditions, particularly in the areas of neuro and vascular health....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$1.29

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$403M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PEN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Penumbra, Inc. is a healthcare company that develops innovative medical devices for the treatment of various conditions, particularly in the areas of neuro and vascular health. With a market cap of $13 billion, its products are essential for improving patient outcomes and addressing critical healthcare needs.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.78%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Penumbra reported an EPS of $0.82, which was significantly below the expected $1.11, resulting in a 25.93% surprise. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.10% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Penumbra to report improved earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $1.29. However, given the previous quarter's miss, there is cautious optimism surrounding the company's ability to meet or exceed expectations.

Bull Case

If Penumbra can deliver strong sales growth and improved margins, it could signal a recovery in demand for its products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations again, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and market competitiveness.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.29

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$403M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Penumbra's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.29?

This figure will be critical in determining investor sentiment and confidence in the company's recovery from the previous quarter's miss.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth and market demand?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's performance and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Penumbra to recover from its previous earnings miss, as the company has historically shown resilience in its product demand.

Supporting Evidence

Penumbra has an 88% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, indicating a strong potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.

Recent trends in healthcare spending may favor companies like Penumbra that provide critical medical devices.

Key Risk

If the company reports strong revenue growth, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a significant earnings miss, and the market is keen to see if the company can rebound.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.29 or higher with strong revenue growth would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.14 would validate concerns about the company's growth and market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.6%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.6% while PEN has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

11.1%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 2.52Puts (32K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Penumbra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, potentially confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss would likely lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of around 0.10% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or innovations in Penumbra's pipeline.
2Management's commentary on market demand and competitive positioning.
3Insights into cost management and margin improvement strategies.
4Updates on regulatory approvals or challenges impacting product availability.
5Any changes in guidance or outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

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Company Snapshot

Penumbra, Inc. is a healthcare company that develops innovative medical devices for the treatment of various conditions, particularly in the areas of neuro and vascular health....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$1.29

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$403M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PEN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+7.72%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.78%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Penumbra reported an EPS of $0.82, which was significantly below the expected $1.11, resulting in a 25.93% surprise. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.10% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Penumbra can deliver strong sales growth and improved margins, it could signal a recovery in demand for its products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet earnings expectations again, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and market competitiveness.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.29

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$403M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Penumbra's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.29?

This figure will be critical in determining investor sentiment and confidence in the company's recovery from the previous quarter's miss.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth and market demand?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's performance and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Penumbra to recover from its previous earnings miss, as the company has historically shown resilience in its product demand.

Supporting Evidence

Penumbra has an 88% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, indicating a strong potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations for volatility.

Recent trends in healthcare spending may favor companies like Penumbra that provide critical medical devices.

Key Risk

If the company reports strong revenue growth, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a significant earnings miss, and the market is keen to see if the company can rebound.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.29 or higher with strong revenue growth would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.14 would validate concerns about the company's growth and market position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.6%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.6% while PEN has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

11.1%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 2.52Puts (32K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Penumbra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, potentially confirming a recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss would likely lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of around 0.10% following such outcomes.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or innovations in Penumbra's pipeline.
2Management's commentary on market demand and competitive positioning.
3Insights into cost management and margin improvement strategies.
4Updates on regulatory approvals or challenges impacting product availability.
5Any changes in guidance or outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.