Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Oct 8, 2026
EPS actual
$2.34
EPS est.
$2.29
EPS surprise
+2.09%
1-day move
+3.73%
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is a leading global food and beverage company known for its popular soft drinks and snacks. As part of the consumer staples sector, it plays a crucial role in everyday consumer spending, especially during economic fluctuations.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, PepsiCo reported an EPS of $2.20, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 3.26% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
5Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
-5.89%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.24%
Overall expectations for PepsiCo's upcoming earnings are mixed, with some analysts anticipating continued growth while others express caution due to market conditions.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on strong consumer demand and successful product launches, potentially leading to higher-than-expected EPS and revenue.
Bear case
Conversely, a slowdown in consumer spending or increased competition could result in disappointing earnings and revenue figures.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$2.20EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales, which is vital for sustaining long-term growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be compared to the expected $2.20?
A significant deviation from this estimate could impact investor sentiment and stock performance.
Q2
How is PepsiCo addressing competition in the beverage market?
Insights into competitive strategies could indicate how well the company is positioned for future growth.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate PepsiCo's ability to innovate and adapt to changing consumer preferences, which could drive stronger sales than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Recent product launches have received positive consumer feedback, indicating strong demand.
The company has a robust distribution network that can quickly adapt to market changes.
Historical performance shows a consistent ability to exceed EPS estimates despite market challenges.
Key risk
If PepsiCo's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects the company's ability to navigate market pressures and consumer preferences.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.25 or higher would confirm the bullish outlook, indicating strong performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.15 would support the bearish view, suggesting potential challenges ahead.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.77%
Historical Avg
±4.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.8% while PEP has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
14.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
81.48%
of float
Insider
0.18%
of float
Holders
4,299
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
118,281,854 sh · $14.6B
8.42%
2.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If PepsiCo beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.93%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
An in-line report may lead to muted reactions as investors await further commentary on future strategies.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of +1.28% in negative reactions.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
1 buy·2 sells
Members
3
House only
Est. Notional
$17,003.00–$80,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Market Share in Soft Drinks
Understanding market share helps assess PepsiCo's competitive position within the beverage industry.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
89,257,968 sh · $11.0B
6.36%
0.5%
State Street Corporation
60,406,932 sh · $7.5B
4.30%
1.7%
Invesco Ltd.
43,113,398 sh · $5.3B
3.07%
5.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
37,159,425 sh · $4.6B
2.65%
1.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 26, 2026 · disclosed Sep 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 17, 2026 · disclosed Aug 12, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.