Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$2.31
EPS est.
$2.01
EPS surprise
+14.93%
1-day move
-0.88%
Palomar Holdings reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which indicates strong performance relative to analyst expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.88%. The lack of revenue data and guidance may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.31 | $2.20 | +14.93% |
| Revenue | — | $248M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) operates in the property and casualty insurance sector, focusing on providing innovative insurance solutions. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly as it relates to risk management and coverage in the face of natural disasters and other liabilities.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Palomar reported an EPS of $2.24, significantly beating estimates by 17.4%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.85% the following day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+25.60%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.57%
Analysts expect Palomar to continue its strong performance with an EPS of $2.20 and revenue of $248 million. The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters.
Bull case
If Palomar can maintain its track record of beating EPS estimates, it could see a strong positive reaction from investors, reinforcing confidence in its growth strategy.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or if there are signs of declining profitability, it could lead to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$2.20EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$248MRevenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and sustain operations.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.20?
A beat on EPS would continue the company's streak of positive surprises, likely boosting investor confidence.
Q2
What insights can management provide on revenue growth relative to the expected $248 million?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Palomar's ability to outperform due to its innovative insurance products that cater to emerging risks.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational efficiency than anticipated.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, which may reflect underlying investor optimism not captured in consensus estimates.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS below $2.14, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the company's ability to sustain its growth amid rising competition and economic challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.25 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.14 would suggest potential issues in profitability and could confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.06%
Historical Avg
±1.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 9%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.0% while PLMR has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
36.1%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
99.77%
of float
Insider
2.74%
of float
Holders
475
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
4,401,832 sh · $558.2M
16.73%
0.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Palomar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.30% on the day, confirming the company's growth narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 1.43%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,234,699 sh · $156.6M
4.69%
1.3%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,192,254 sh · $151.2M
4.53%
-0.5%
State Street Corporation
1,122,717 sh · $142.4M
4.27%
5.7%
Jupiter Topco LLC
1,045,459 sh · $132.6M
3.97%
100.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.