Equity Profile

PLMR

Palomar Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance$3.4B

Aug3Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Palomar Holdings, Inc. is a property and casualty insurance company that focuses on providing innovative insurance solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$2.21

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.

$281M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PLMR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Palomar Holdings, Inc. is a property and casualty insurance company that focuses on providing innovative insurance solutions. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in managing risk for homeowners and businesses, especially in areas prone to natural disasters.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+25.56%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Palomar reported an EPS of $2.31, surpassing estimates by nearly 15%. However, the stock dipped slightly the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Palomar to continue its strong performance, with a consensus EPS of $2.21. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in revenue generation.

Bull Case

If Palomar exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its insurance products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS or revenue expectations, it may raise concerns about its market position and profitability, leading to a negative reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.21

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$281M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.21?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance trend and could lead to positive market sentiment.

What is the outlook for revenue growth given the current market conditions?

Understanding revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to sustain profitability and market share.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the company's ability to capitalize on rising insurance demand in disaster-prone areas, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Palomar has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors expect more volatility than historical averages would imply.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $290M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Palomar can maintain its growth trajectory amid potential market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.25 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $290M, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.10 or revenue falling short of $260M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.99%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±20.0% while PLMR has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.4%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 1.33Puts (200)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Palomar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.36% on the following day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline, with the stock possibly dropping by an average of 0.0%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new insurance products or market expansions.
2Insights into claims trends and how they might impact profitability.
3Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the insurance market.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and market conditions.
5Details on operational efficiencies that could enhance margins.

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Company Snapshot

Palomar Holdings, Inc. is a property and casualty insurance company that focuses on providing innovative insurance solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$2.21

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.

$281M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

PLMR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+25.56%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Palomar reported an EPS of $2.31, surpassing estimates by nearly 15%. However, the stock dipped slightly the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Palomar to continue its strong performance, with a consensus EPS of $2.21. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in revenue generation.

Bull Case

If Palomar exceeds EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its insurance products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet EPS or revenue expectations, it may raise concerns about its market position and profitability, leading to a negative reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.21

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$281M

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.21?

A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance trend and could lead to positive market sentiment.

What is the outlook for revenue growth given the current market conditions?

Understanding revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to sustain profitability and market share.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the company's ability to capitalize on rising insurance demand in disaster-prone areas, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Palomar has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors expect more volatility than historical averages would imply.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $290M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate centers around whether Palomar can maintain its growth trajectory amid potential market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.25 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $290M, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.10 or revenue falling short of $260M would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.99%

Historical Avg

±1.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±20.0% while PLMR has averaged ±1.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

31.4%

Calls (100)P/C Ratio: 1.33Puts (200)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Palomar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.36% on the following day, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline, with the stock possibly dropping by an average of 0.0%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new insurance products or market expansions.
2Insights into claims trends and how they might impact profitability.
3Management's commentary on competitive pressures in the insurance market.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations and market conditions.
5Details on operational efficiencies that could enhance margins.