Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Apr 23, 2026
EPS actual
$1.45
EPS est.
$1.34
EPS surprise
+8.53%
1-day move
-2.37%
Pool Corporation's earnings report shows a solid performance with an EPS beat, indicating effective cost management or strong sales. However, the stock fell by 2.37%, likely reflecting investor concerns about the lack of revenue data and ongoing supply chain issues. The cautious tone from management may also have contributed to the stock's decline.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.45 | N/A | +8.53% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Management conveyed a cautiously optimistic outlook, emphasizing strong demand despite logistical challenges. They reiterated their commitment to navigating current market conditions.
Management highlighted strong demand in the pool supply segment.
They noted ongoing challenges in supply chain logistics.
The team expressed confidence in maintaining market leadership.
POOL Corp is a leading distributor of swimming pool supplies and related products. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, it benefits from trends in home improvement and leisure spending, especially as more people invest in outdoor living spaces.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, POOL Corp reported an EPS of $0.84, missing estimates by 15.15%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 14.48% the next day.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.22%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.19%
Investors are cautious ahead of POOL Corp's earnings report, especially after the significant miss last quarter. The market is looking for signs of recovery in revenue and profitability.
Bull case
If POOL Corp can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a rebound in consumer spending and confidence in outdoor investments.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss on earnings and revenue expectations, it may indicate deeper issues in demand or cost management, leading to further stock declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected revenue growth for the upcoming quarter?
Revenue growth will be a key indicator of how well POOL Corp is performing in a competitive market, especially after last quarter's miss.
Q2
How is the company managing its gross margins in the current economic environment?
Understanding margin management will provide insights into the company's cost control measures and pricing strategies, which are crucial for profitability.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in consumer spending on pool-related products, given the recent trends in home improvement investments.
Supporting evidence
Historical data shows that POOL Corp has a 63% EPS beat rate, indicating potential for positive surprises.
The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting a lack of confidence in a significant change.
The recent trend in home improvement spending may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the potential for recovery against the backdrop of previous earnings misses and current economic conditions.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue growth rate of over 10% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
If EPS comes in below $0.80, it would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.9%
Historical Avg
±5.3%
The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move for POOL Corp's stock following the earnings report, suggesting uncertainty about the outcomes.
Options are pricing ±3.9% while POOL has averaged ±5.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
30d HV
27.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.8%, with a raw directional average of -0.2% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
112.49%
of float
Insider
3.54%
of float
Holders
822
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
4,032,463 sh · $621.6M
11.10%
75.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If POOL Corp beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 3.5%, confirming a positive outlook for consumer spending.
In line / cautious
An in-line report with cautious management commentary may lead to a muted reaction, as investors seek clarity on future growth.
Miss
If the company misses again, history suggests a potential drop of around 6%, raising concerns about ongoing demand challenges.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Wellington Management Group, LLP
2,576,219 sh · $397.1M
7.09%
-10.2%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
2,574,364 sh · $396.8M
7.08%
-9.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,060,785 sh · $317.6M
5.67%
23.6%
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.
1,988,405 sh · $306.5M
5.47%
-11.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.