Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
EPS actual
$5.38
EPS est.
$5.30
EPS surprise
+1.41%
1-day move
-6.55%
Pool Corporation reported a better-than-expected EPS, but the stock fell by 6.55% following the earnings release. The lack of revenue data and management commentary may have contributed to investor uncertainty, leading to the stock's decline.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $5.38 | N/A | +1.41% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Pool Corporation (POOL) is a leading distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related products. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to trends in home improvement and leisure spending.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Pool Corporation reported an EPS of $1.45, exceeding expectations by 8.53%. However, the stock declined by 2.37% the following day, indicating some market disappointment despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.22%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.19%
With no analyst estimates available, expectations are uncertain. However, the options market suggests a significant potential price movement following the earnings report.
Bull case
If Pool Corporation can deliver strong earnings and revenue growth, it may signal robust demand in the swimming pool industry, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting broader concerns about consumer spending.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?
EPS is a key measure of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could heavily influence investor sentiment.
Q2
How is revenue growth trending in the current economic environment?
Understanding revenue growth will provide insights into consumer demand and the company's market position, which are crucial for future performance.
—
Est. EPS
$0.34
Est. Rev
$86M
Impl. Move
±11.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Pool Corporation's resilience in a challenging economic environment, particularly if they can demonstrate strong cost management and revenue growth despite broader market pressures.
Supporting evidence
The company's history of beating EPS estimates suggests potential for positive surprises.
Options pricing indicates a high expected move, which may reflect underlying confidence in the company's performance.
Key risk
If the company reports strong revenue growth, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely scrutinized as it reflects the company's ability to navigate current economic challenges.
Bull confirmed if
Delivering an EPS above $1.50 would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.30 would raise concerns about profitability and market conditions.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±19.96%
Historical Avg
±5.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential price movement, suggesting traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±20.0% while POOL has averaged ±5.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
38.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
112.49%
of float
Insider
3.54%
of float
Holders
822
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
4,032,463 sh · $621.6M
11.10%
75.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Pool Corporation beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.43%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 6.05%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about the company's outlook.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Wellington Management Group, LLP
2,576,219 sh · $397.1M
7.09%
-10.2%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
2,574,364 sh · $396.8M
7.08%
-9.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,060,785 sh · $317.6M
5.67%
23.6%
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.
1,988,405 sh · $306.5M
5.47%
-11.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.