Energy·Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing·$65.3B
Phillips 66 (PSX) is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $64 billion, the company plays a critical role in the supply chain of energy products, which are essential for transportation and heating....
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
3Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.64%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.23%
In Q4 2025, Phillips 66 reported an EPS of $2.47, exceeding expectations by 17%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.46% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are anticipating a challenging quarter for Phillips 66, with a consensus EPS of -$0.15. This reflects concerns over fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.
Bull Case
If Phillips 66 can leverage strong refining margins and manage costs effectively, it may outperform expectations, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company reports a significant loss or lower-than-expected revenue, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting investor concerns.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$-0.15EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$34.9BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to the consensus estimate of -$0.15?
The EPS figure will be a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and could significantly influence investor sentiment.
Q2
How does the revenue of $34.9 billion align with the company's operational performance and market conditions?
Revenue performance will reflect the company's ability to navigate market challenges and could impact future guidance.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus is overly pessimistic about Phillips 66's ability to manage costs and capitalize on refining margins, which may not be as weak as projected.
Supporting Evidence
The company has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders are anticipating volatility that could favor a positive outcome.
Key Risk
If refining margins show unexpected strength, it could challenge the bearish consensus and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Phillips 66 can maintain profitability amidst fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.50 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS of -$0.90 or worse would confirm the bear case, signaling deeper issues in profitability.
Implied Move
±7.51%
Historical Avg
±3.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.5% while PSX has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Phillips 66 beats EPS expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.04%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of about 2.20%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over future performance.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
VERIZON COMMUNICATIO
Apr 27, 2026