Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Aug 5, 2026
EPS actual
$2.29
EPS est.
$2.11
EPS surprise
+8.53%
1-day move
+1.11%
Protagonist Therapeutics reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a slight increase in stock price. However, there was no revenue reported, and no guidance was provided for future performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS beat but will likely be looking for more information in future reports.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $2.29 | N/A | +8.53% |
| Revenue | — | N/A | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing novel therapies for serious diseases. Operating in the health care sector, the company is particularly relevant as it works on innovative treatments that could address unmet medical needs.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Protagonist reported an EPS of $0.05, significantly beating the estimate of -$0.65. However, the stock saw a slight decline of 0.31% the following day.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+398.56%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.20%
Overall, expectations for Protagonist's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are likely looking for signs of continued improvement in profitability.
Bull case
If Protagonist can show strong revenue growth and maintain or improve its EPS, it could signal a positive trend that excites investors.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of stagnation, it could lead to a negative reaction from the market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to last quarter's surprise?
Given the significant surprise last quarter, the market will be keen to see if this trend continues or if it was a one-off event.
Q2
What is the company's outlook on revenue growth moving forward?
Investors will be looking for clarity on revenue trends, as this will impact future profitability and stock performance.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating Protagonist's ability to maintain its recent profitability, as the last quarter's EPS surprise indicates potential for continued growth.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing an 18.21% move, suggesting expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.
Protagonist's recent EPS surprise of +107.67% indicates that the company may have stronger fundamentals than currently perceived.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in below $0.05, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether the company can sustain its recent profitability improvements.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.10 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.05 would confirm the bear case, indicating potential issues in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±18.21%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±18.2% while PTGX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
39.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$8.3M
58,629 sh
1 insider
Net
$8.3M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$8.3M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
119.66%
of float
Insider
0.71%
of float
Holders
486
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
10,307,837 sh · $1.5B
15.93%
5.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Protagonist beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.27%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest management's commentary.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.80%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $141.78
46,034 sh
$6.5M
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $141.77
12,595 sh
$1.8M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Farallon Capital Management LLC
6,348,906 sh · $894.7M
9.81%
Flat
RTW Investments LP
5,061,175 sh · $713.2M
7.82%
0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,629,298 sh · $511.4M
5.61%
4.3%
Wellington Management Group, LLP
3,416,781 sh · $481.5M
5.28%
-5.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.