Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$0.86
EPS est.
$0.82
EPS surprise
+4.37%
1-day move
-5.47%
Restaurant Brands International reported better-than-expected earnings per share, but did not disclose revenue figures. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.47%, likely due to the lack of revenue data and guidance, which may raise concerns among investors about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.86 | $0.83 | +4.37% |
| Revenue | — | $2.2B | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is a major player in the fast-food industry, operating well-known brands like Burger King and Tim Hortons. With a market cap of $28 billion, the company is influenced by consumer spending trends and the growing demand for quick-service dining options.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Q4-2025, QSR reported an EPS of $0.96, beating expectations slightly. However, the stock dropped 6.15% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.25%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.77%
Analysts expect QSR to report earnings that meet or slightly exceed consensus estimates. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in the competitive fast-food landscape.
Bull case
If QSR can demonstrate strong same-store sales growth and effective cost management, it could lead to a positive surprise in earnings and revenue, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected sales or rising costs, it may reinforce concerns about its ability to compete effectively, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.83Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$2.2BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and is crucial for understanding growth trends in a competitive market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the same-store sales growth rate this quarter?
This metric is crucial as it indicates how well QSR's brands are performing in a competitive environment and can significantly impact investor sentiment.
Q2
How is the company managing rising costs and supply chain challenges?
Given the current economic climate, insights into cost management strategies will be vital for assessing future profitability.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the impact of QSR's recent marketing campaigns and menu innovations, which could drive stronger sales than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for surprise.
The company's recent initiatives to enhance customer experience may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.
Key risk
If same-store sales growth exceeds +5%, it could significantly shift market perceptions and expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is particularly focused on how QSR is navigating challenges in the fast-food sector, including inflation and competition.
Bull confirmed if
Same-store sales growth of +5% or better would confirm strong consumer demand and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
If same-store sales growth falls below +1%, it would raise concerns about the company's competitive position.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.42%
Historical Avg
±3.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility based on the results.
Options are pricing ±5.4% while QSR has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
23.3%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
97.17%
of float
Insider
1.28%
of float
Holders
860
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital World Investors
43,862,952 sh · $3.0B
12.58%
2.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If QSR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.8%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 2.8%, as seen in past quarters, further fueling concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
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25,821,284 sh · $1.8B
7.40%
100.0%
Royal Bank of Canada
20,236,317 sh · $1.4B
5.80%
10.1%
Edgepoint Investment Group Inc.
17,171,552 sh · $1.2B
4.92%
-11.3%
Blackrock Inc.
15,228,770 sh · $1.1B
4.37%
90.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 6, 2026 · disclosed Sep 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.