Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
$1.07
EPS est.
$1.03
EPS surprise
+4.29%
1-day move
-2.11%
Restaurant Brands International Inc. reported a positive surprise in EPS, exceeding expectations by 4.29%. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.11%. The lack of revenue data and management commentary may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.07 | N/A | +4.29% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is a global leader in the fast-food industry, owning popular brands like Burger King and Tim Hortons. With a market cap of $27 billion, the company is influenced by trends in consumer spending and the competitive landscape of the restaurant sector.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, QSR reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.86, beating estimates by 4.37%. However, the stock fell 5.47% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.25%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.77%
Overall, analysts expect QSR to show steady performance with moderate growth in same-store sales. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its growth trajectory amid rising competition.
Bull case
If QSR can exceed same-store sales growth expectations and demonstrate strong new restaurant openings, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected same-store sales or struggles with new openings, it may raise concerns about its market position and growth strategy.
Key metrics to watch
Same-Store Sales Growth
3.5%This metric indicates how well existing restaurants are performing and is crucial for assessing overall business health.
Net New Restaurant Openings
150The number of new locations opened can signal growth potential and market expansion strategies.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will same-store sales growth exceed 3.5%?
This figure is critical for assessing the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive market.
Q2
How many new restaurant openings are planned this quarter?
The number of new openings will indicate the company's growth strategy and its confidence in market demand.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of QSR's digital sales initiatives, which could drive higher same-store sales than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Recent investments in digital platforms have shown early signs of success in other fast-food chains.
Options pricing suggests a more volatile reaction than historical averages, indicating potential surprises.
Management's focus on menu innovation may resonate well with consumers, leading to increased traffic.
Key risk
If same-store sales growth exceeds 4%, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on the company's ability to drive sales growth and expand its footprint in the market.
Bull confirmed if
Same-store sales growth of 4% or higher would confirm strong consumer demand and operational success.
Bear confirmed if
Same-store sales growth below 2% would raise concerns about market competitiveness and customer retention.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.81%
Historical Avg
±3.1%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.81%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±3.8% while QSR has averaged ±3.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
26.3%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
97.17%
of float
Insider
1.28%
of float
Holders
860
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital World Investors
43,862,952 sh · $3.0B
12.58%
2.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If QSR beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.5% on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the commentary.
Miss
If QSR misses expectations, history suggests a potential drop of about 2.77%, reflecting investor disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Operating Margin
38%Operating margin reflects the company's efficiency in managing costs relative to revenue, which is vital for profitability.
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 6, 2026 · disclosed Sep 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.