Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$-1.84
EPS est.
$-1.55
EPS surprise
-18.94%
1-day move
+0.81%
Ultragenyx's earnings report showed a larger-than-expected loss per share, which may raise concerns among investors. However, the stock still managed to rise by 0.81%, suggesting that investors may be looking beyond the EPS miss or reacting to other factors. Without revenue figures or management commentary, the market's response may reflect broader market trends or investor sentiment.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-1.84 | $-1.46 | -18.94% |
| Revenue | — | $159M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases. With a market cap of $2 billion, it plays a crucial role in the healthcare sector by addressing unmet medical needs through its specialized treatments.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of $-1.29, which was worse than analysts' expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.59% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-5.22%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.80%
Analysts expect Ultragenyx to report a loss again this quarter, but revenue growth could indicate improving demand for its products.
Bull case
If the company can beat EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses on both EPS and revenue, it may raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-1.46Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs this quarter.
Revenue
$159MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Ultragenyx report an EPS better than the consensus of $-1.46?
A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What is the revenue figure relative to the consensus of $159M?
Revenue performance will be a key indicator of market demand for Ultragenyx's products and its overall growth trajectory.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for revenue growth, as recent product launches could drive higher sales than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 9.41% move, suggesting expectations of volatility that may not align with historical performance.
Ultragenyx has previously shown the ability to surprise on the upside, as seen in Q2 2025.
Key risk
If revenue comes in above $175M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it could set the tone for future growth and investor sentiment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $-1.30 or better, coupled with revenue exceeding $175M, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-2.00 and revenue below $129M would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.41%
Historical Avg
±2.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.9% while RARE has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
52.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 6 of 19 (32%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 19 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +3.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
112.49%
of float
Insider
3.44%
of float
Holders
434
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
10,654,276 sh · $158.6M
10.81%
46.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Ultragenyx beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.63%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on both EPS and revenue could lead to a decline of about 2.89%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
RTW Investments LP
7,796,895 sh · $116.1M
7.91%
113.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
6,790,135 sh · $101.1M
6.89%
26.1%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
6,560,809 sh · $97.7M
6.65%
43.3%
State Street Corporation
6,158,766 sh · $91.7M
6.25%
22.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.