Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases. With a market cap of $2 billion, it plays a crucial role in addressing unmet medical needs in the healthcare sector.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's estimate reflects ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
Revenue
Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its therapies.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
38%
Avg EPS Surprise
-7.77%
Avg Stock Reaction
-1.57%
In Q4-2025, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of $-1.29, missing estimates by 7.32%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.59% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Ultragenyx to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-1.46 and revenue of $159 million. The company has struggled with profitability in recent quarters.
Bull Case
If Ultragenyx can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of improved sales for its therapies, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.
Bear Case
Continued losses and revenue falling short of expectations could further erode investor sentiment, leading to a significant decline in stock price.
EPS
$-1.46Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter's estimate reflects ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
Revenue
$159MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its therapies.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will the revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $159 million?
Revenue performance is critical to gauge market acceptance of Ultragenyx's therapies and overall business health.
Q2
What updates will management provide regarding the path to profitability?
Insights into cost management and potential profitability timelines will be crucial for investor confidence.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for revenue growth driven by recent product launches and market expansion efforts.
Supporting Evidence
Recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future prospects.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
The company's unique focus on rare diseases may lead to less competition and stronger market positioning.
Key Risk
If revenue comes in below $129 million, it could invalidate the optimistic growth narrative.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be pivotal in determining whether Ultragenyx can stabilize its financials and regain investor trust.
Bull Confirmed If
Revenue exceeding $175 million would confirm strong demand for Ultragenyx's therapies.
Bear Confirmed If
Revenue falling below $129 million would indicate ongoing challenges in market acceptance.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±11.16%
Historical Avg
±2.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.2% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
56.0%
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Ultragenyx beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.63%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions as investors weigh management's commentary on future prospects.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a decline of about 2.89%, which could further dampen investor sentiment.
Preparation
House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
2 buys·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Mar 3, 2026 · disclosed Apr 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Feb 18, 2026 · disclosed Mar 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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