Equity Profile

RARE

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

Health CareBiotechnology$2.6B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

$-1.00

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and growth trajectory.

$183M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RARE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a crucial role in the healthcare sector, particularly in addressing unmet medical needs.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of $-1.84, missing expectations by nearly 19%. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 0.81%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Ultragenyx's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a narrower EPS loss and steady revenue growth.

Bull Case

If the company can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of improving operational efficiency, it may signal a turnaround.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company continues to miss EPS estimates and revenue targets, it could raise concerns about its financial health.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.00

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$183M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultragenyx achieve a revenue of at least $183M this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this revenue target is crucial for demonstrating growth and operational success.

Can the company narrow its EPS loss to $-1.00 or better?

A smaller loss could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is essential for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Ultragenyx's potential for revenue growth, as recent developments in their pipeline could lead to unexpected sales.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising on revenue, as seen in Q2-2025 when they beat estimates.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders are anticipating volatility that may not be reflected in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If the company demonstrates stronger-than-expected demand for its therapies, it could significantly alter the outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be critical in determining whether Ultragenyx can stabilize its financials and regain investor trust.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving revenue of $183M or better while narrowing EPS loss to $-1.00 or less would confirm a positive outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

Failing to meet revenue expectations and reporting a wider EPS loss would signal ongoing financial struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.37%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.4% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

38.5%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultragenyx beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of +0.63%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of -2.68%, raising concerns about its financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or pipeline developments.
2Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
3Guidance on future revenue expectations and market conditions.
4Insights into competitive positioning within the biotechnology sector.
5Management's commentary on patient demand and market trends.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare genetic diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

$-1.00

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and growth trajectory.

$183M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RARE Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-7.93%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.44%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ultragenyx reported an EPS of $-1.84, missing expectations by nearly 19%. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 0.81%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Ultragenyx's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a narrower EPS loss and steady revenue growth.

Bull Case

If the company can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of improving operational efficiency, it may signal a turnaround.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company continues to miss EPS estimates and revenue targets, it could raise concerns about its financial health.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-1.00

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$183M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ultragenyx achieve a revenue of at least $183M this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this revenue target is crucial for demonstrating growth and operational success.

Can the company narrow its EPS loss to $-1.00 or better?

A smaller loss could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is essential for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Ultragenyx's potential for revenue growth, as recent developments in their pipeline could lead to unexpected sales.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of surprising on revenue, as seen in Q2-2025 when they beat estimates.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders are anticipating volatility that may not be reflected in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If the company demonstrates stronger-than-expected demand for its therapies, it could significantly alter the outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be critical in determining whether Ultragenyx can stabilize its financials and regain investor trust.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving revenue of $183M or better while narrowing EPS loss to $-1.00 or less would confirm a positive outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

Failing to meet revenue expectations and reporting a wider EPS loss would signal ongoing financial struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±32.37%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±32.4% while RARE has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

38.5%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (3K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultragenyx beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of +0.63%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of -2.68%, raising concerns about its financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or pipeline developments.
2Details on cost management strategies and operational efficiencies.
3Guidance on future revenue expectations and market conditions.
4Insights into competitive positioning within the biotechnology sector.
5Management's commentary on patient demand and market trends.