Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$0.89
EPS est.
$1.17
EPS surprise
-23.93%
1-day move
+0.42%
Radian Group Inc. reported earnings that fell short of expectations, particularly in EPS. Despite this miss, the stock saw a slight increase of 0.42%, indicating that investors may have had lower expectations or are focusing on other factors. Without additional commentary from management, the implications for future performance remain unclear.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.89 | $1.21 | -23.93% |
| Revenue | — | $401M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. The company plays a crucial role in facilitating home ownership and real estate investment, which are key components of the economy.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Radian reported an EPS of $1.16, exceeding expectations by 4.5%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.25% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.06%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.75%
Analysts expect Radian to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, with a consensus EPS of $1.21. Revenue expectations are set at $401 million, suggesting stable performance.
Bull case
If Radian exceeds the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong demand for its mortgage insurance products, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about the health of the mortgage market and lead to a negative reaction in the stock.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.21Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well Radian has managed its costs and revenues.
Revenue
$401MTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its mortgage insurance and related services, impacting overall financial health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Radian's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.21?
A beat on EPS would reinforce the company's strong performance and could positively influence investor sentiment.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook for the upcoming quarters, particularly in relation to the $401 million consensus?
Revenue performance is critical to understanding the company's growth trajectory and market demand for its services.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Radian's ability to capitalize on a recovering housing market, which could drive stronger-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
Radian has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong operational management.
The options market suggests a higher expected volatility, which could reflect underlying market confidence.
Recent insider selling may not necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.
Key risk
If Radian reports an EPS below $1.14, it could challenge the consensus view of ongoing strength in the mortgage finance sector.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be closely watched as they could indicate the health of the mortgage finance sector amid changing economic conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.25 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and positive market conditions.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.14 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and market position.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.1%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility.
Options are pricing ±5.3% while RDN has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
21.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.0% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
97.57%
of float
Insider
1.66%
of float
Holders
535
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
19,327,643 sh · $651.3M
14.61%
2.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.96%, confirming strong demand for its mortgage products.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 1.63%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
9,241,527 sh · $311.4M
6.99%
-1.1%
LSV Asset Management
6,392,333 sh · $215.4M
4.83%
3.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
6,070,437 sh · $204.6M
4.59%
2.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,991,073 sh · $201.9M
4.53%
-1.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.