Equity Profile

RDN

Radian Group Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$4.5B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the core business performance and revenue generation from mortgage insurance, crucial for Radian's growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. The company plays a crucial role in the housing market by providing mortgage insurance and risk management solutions, which can be influenced by trends in housing demand and interest rates.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, missing estimates by nearly 24%. Despite the miss, the stock saw a slight increase the following day, indicating some investor optimism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Radian's upcoming earnings are cautious due to the recent EPS miss. Investors will be looking for signs of recovery or improvement in key metrics.

Bull Case

If Radian can demonstrate strong growth in mortgage insurance premiums and manage claims effectively, it could signal a rebound in profitability, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued weakness in earnings and higher claims, it could raise concerns about its financial stability and lead to a negative response from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be critical in determining whether the company is recovering from its recent miss and how it is managing its mortgage insurance business.

How have claims paid changed compared to previous quarters?

Understanding changes in claims will provide insight into the company's risk exposure and financial health in the current housing market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to improve its margins through better risk management and cost controls despite recent challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a minimal move, suggesting low expectations for volatility, which could be overly conservative.

Radian's historical EPS beat rate of 88% indicates a strong track record of exceeding expectations, which may not be fully reflected in current sentiment.

Key Risk

If claims paid come in significantly lower than expected, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing Radian's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss against the backdrop of a fluctuating housing market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher would indicate a strong recovery and confidence in Radian's business model.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.85 would confirm ongoing challenges and could lead to further declines in stock price.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move, suggesting that investors are uncertain about significant changes in the stock price following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.1M

30,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$1.1M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Sr EVP, General CounselHoffman Edward J
$1.1M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock move of +0.95%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future performance.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential average decline of +0.42%, raising concerns about its financial stability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium growth rates.
2Details on the company's claims management strategies.
3Insights into the impact of current housing market conditions on Radian's business.
4Management's outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the mortgage finance sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Mortgage Insurance Premiums

This metric reflects the core business performance and revenue generation from mortgage insurance, crucial for Radian's growth.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, missing estimates by nearly 24%. Despite the miss, the stock saw a slight increase the following day, indicating some investor optimism.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Radian's upcoming earnings are cautious due to the recent EPS miss. Investors will be looking for signs of recovery or improvement in key metrics.

Bull Case

If Radian can demonstrate strong growth in mortgage insurance premiums and manage claims effectively, it could signal a rebound in profitability, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports continued weakness in earnings and higher claims, it could raise concerns about its financial stability and lead to a negative response from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

The EPS figure will be critical in determining whether the company is recovering from its recent miss and how it is managing its mortgage insurance business.

How have claims paid changed compared to previous quarters?

Understanding changes in claims will provide insight into the company's risk exposure and financial health in the current housing market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to improve its margins through better risk management and cost controls despite recent challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a minimal move, suggesting low expectations for volatility, which could be overly conservative.

Radian's historical EPS beat rate of 88% indicates a strong track record of exceeding expectations, which may not be fully reflected in current sentiment.

Key Risk

If claims paid come in significantly lower than expected, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing Radian's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss against the backdrop of a fluctuating housing market.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.10 or higher would indicate a strong recovery and confidence in Radian's business model.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.85 would confirm ongoing challenges and could lead to further declines in stock price.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move, suggesting that investors are uncertain about significant changes in the stock price following the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.1M

30,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$1.1M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades

Sr EVP, General CounselHoffman Edward J
$1.1M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock move of +0.95%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future performance.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential average decline of +0.42%, raising concerns about its financial stability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium growth rates.
2Details on the company's claims management strategies.
3Insights into the impact of current housing market conditions on Radian's business.
4Management's outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the mortgage finance sector.