Equity Profile

RDN

Radian Group Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$4.9B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter's consensus is higher than last quarter's performance, indicating expectations for recovery.

$1.35

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's market demand and overall business health, especially in the current economic climate.

$497M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance market, Radian helps lenders manage risk and supports homeownership, making it relevant in the current economic landscape where housing affordability is a significant concern.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, falling short of the expected $1.17, resulting in a 23.93% surprise. The stock reacted positively the next day, gaining 0.42%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Radian's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue compared to the previous quarter. However, the recent miss may lead to skepticism.

Bull Case

If Radian meets or exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal a strong recovery in profitability, boosting investor confidence and potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market position, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.35

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter's consensus is higher than last quarter's performance, indicating expectations for recovery.

Revenue

$497M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's market demand and overall business health, especially in the current economic climate.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Radian achieve an EPS of at least $1.35 this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss.

What factors contributed to the revenue estimate of $497M, and can Radian meet this target?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help gauge the company's market position and operational effectiveness.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as historical patterns show a strong EPS beat rate.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has an 88% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, suggesting a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.

The options market is pricing a lower move than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger reaction than anticipated.

Key Risk

If Radian's revenue comes in significantly below $497M, it could undermine the recovery narrative and lead to a sharp sell-off.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's earnings are pivotal as they follow a significant miss, and the market is closely watching for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.35 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.30 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move, suggesting that traders expect limited volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of about 0.95%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future performance.

Miss

Should Radian miss again, the average historical reaction indicates a potential decline of around 0.42%, which could further dampen investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the impact of housing market trends on mortgage insurance demand.
2Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on any new partnerships or initiatives that could drive growth.
5Clarification on how the company plans to address the challenges faced in the previous quarter.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter's consensus is higher than last quarter's performance, indicating expectations for recovery.

$1.35

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's market demand and overall business health, especially in the current economic climate.

$497M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, falling short of the expected $1.17, resulting in a 23.93% surprise. The stock reacted positively the next day, gaining 0.42%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Radian's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue compared to the previous quarter. However, the recent miss may lead to skepticism.

Bull Case

If Radian meets or exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal a strong recovery in profitability, boosting investor confidence and potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its operational efficiency and market position, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.35

EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and this quarter's consensus is higher than last quarter's performance, indicating expectations for recovery.

Revenue

$497M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's market demand and overall business health, especially in the current economic climate.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Radian achieve an EPS of at least $1.35 this quarter?

Meeting or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss.

What factors contributed to the revenue estimate of $497M, and can Radian meet this target?

Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help gauge the company's market position and operational effectiveness.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as historical patterns show a strong EPS beat rate.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has an 88% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, suggesting a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.

The options market is pricing a lower move than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger reaction than anticipated.

Key Risk

If Radian's revenue comes in significantly below $497M, it could undermine the recovery narrative and lead to a sharp sell-off.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's earnings are pivotal as they follow a significant miss, and the market is closely watching for signs of recovery.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.35 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.30 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a relatively modest move, suggesting that traders expect limited volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of about 0.95%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future performance.

Miss

Should Radian miss again, the average historical reaction indicates a potential decline of around 0.42%, which could further dampen investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the impact of housing market trends on mortgage insurance demand.
2Insights into operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
4Details on any new partnerships or initiatives that could drive growth.
5Clarification on how the company plans to address the challenges faced in the previous quarter.