Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Aug 5, 2026
EPS actual
$1.14
EPS est.
$1.38
EPS surprise
-17.39%
1-day move
-1.19%
Radian Group's earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's decline of 1.19% in reaction. The lack of revenue data further complicates the picture, leaving investors with limited insights into the company's performance this quarter. Overall, the results indicate challenges that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.14 | $1.35 | -17.39% |
| Revenue | N/A | $497M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Radian Group Inc. (RDN) operates in the financial sector, focusing on commercial and residential mortgage finance. As a key player in the mortgage insurance market, its performance can reflect broader trends in housing and lending, making it an important company to watch amid fluctuating interest rates and economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, which was significantly below the expected $1.17, resulting in a surprise of nearly 24%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.42% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.06%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.75%
Analysts expect Radian to rebound in Q2 2026 with an EPS of $1.35, indicating a recovery from the previous quarter's disappointing results. Revenue expectations are set at $497 million, reflecting optimism about the mortgage market.
Bull case
If Radian can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery in the housing market, leading to increased investor confidence and potentially higher stock prices.
Bear case
Conversely, if Radian misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about the company's ability to navigate a challenging mortgage environment, which could lead to a decline in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.35Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and will show how well the company has managed costs and revenue.
Revenue
$497MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand for mortgage insurance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Radian achieve an EPS of $1.35 or higher?
This figure is crucial as it will indicate whether the company has successfully rebounded from last quarter's disappointing performance.
Q2
What is the revenue outlook compared to the $497M consensus?
Revenue performance will reflect the demand for mortgage insurance and the company's market position, which is vital for investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±12.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Radian's ability to rebound due to improving housing market conditions and effective cost management strategies.
Supporting evidence
Radian has historically beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.
The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, indicating potential for a larger reaction.
Recent trends in the housing market show signs of recovery, which could positively impact Radian's performance.
Key risk
If Radian's EPS comes in above $1.35, it could shift market sentiment significantly.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a significant earnings miss, and market conditions are uncertain.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.35 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $497M, would confirm a strong recovery and positive market conditions.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.30 and revenue significantly under $297M would suggest ongoing challenges in the mortgage market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±0.78%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a relatively small move, suggesting that investors are uncertain about significant changes in stock price following the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±0.8% while RDN has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
29.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
97.57%
of float
Insider
1.66%
of float
Holders
535
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
19,327,643 sh · $651.3M
14.61%
2.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Radian beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.95%, confirming a positive trend in the mortgage market.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 0.42%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
9,241,527 sh · $311.4M
6.99%
-1.1%
LSV Asset Management
6,392,333 sh · $215.4M
4.83%
3.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
6,070,437 sh · $204.6M
4.59%
2.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,991,073 sh · $201.9M
4.53%
-1.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.