Equity Profile

RDN

Radian Group Inc.

FinancialsCommercial & Residential Mortgage Finance$5.1B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. is a financial services company that provides mortgage insurance and risk management solutions for both commercial and residential properties....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share in the mortgage finance sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. is a financial services company that provides mortgage insurance and risk management solutions for both commercial and residential properties. With a market cap of $5 billion, Radian plays a crucial role in the housing finance sector, which is influenced by trends in home buying, interest rates, and overall economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, which was significantly below the expected $1.17, resulting in a 23.93% surprise. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 0.42%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Radian's upcoming earnings are cautious due to the recent EPS miss. Investors will be looking for signs of recovery and growth in key metrics.

Bull Case

If Radian can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it could signal a rebound in its business, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its long-term growth prospects, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2 2026, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.89?

Given the significant miss last quarter, any improvement in EPS will be closely scrutinized to gauge the company's recovery.

What are the trends in mortgage insurance premiums this quarter?

As a core revenue driver, understanding the performance in mortgage insurance premiums will be critical for assessing Radian's growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to recover from its recent earnings miss, as historical patterns show a strong tendency for rebounds following similar setups.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting it often exceeds expectations.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than the historical average, indicating potential undervaluation.

The recent stock price reaction to earnings misses has been relatively muted, suggesting that the market may be overly cautious.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $1.00, it could significantly shift market sentiment and challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's earnings will be pivotal in determining whether Radian can rebound from its recent performance challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.55%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move of about 0.78% for Radian's stock following the earnings report, suggesting that investors are anticipating a stable reaction.

Options are pricing a smaller move compared to the historical average of 1.55%, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.95% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor caution.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.42%, indicating heightened concerns about its financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium trends and their impact on revenue.
2Guidance on future earnings expectations and how they compare to current analyst estimates.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness in improving profitability.
4Insights into market conditions affecting home buying and mortgage demand.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning within the mortgage finance industry.

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Company Snapshot

Radian Group Inc. is a financial services company that provides mortgage insurance and risk management solutions for both commercial and residential properties....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share in the mortgage finance sector.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RDN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.88%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Radian reported an EPS of $0.89, which was significantly below the expected $1.17, resulting in a 23.93% surprise. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 0.42%.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Radian's upcoming earnings are cautious due to the recent EPS miss. Investors will be looking for signs of recovery and growth in key metrics.

Bull Case

If Radian can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved EPS, it could signal a rebound in its business, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports another earnings miss or weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its long-term growth prospects, leading to a negative market reaction.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2 2026, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.89?

Given the significant miss last quarter, any improvement in EPS will be closely scrutinized to gauge the company's recovery.

What are the trends in mortgage insurance premiums this quarter?

As a core revenue driver, understanding the performance in mortgage insurance premiums will be critical for assessing Radian's growth potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Radian's ability to recover from its recent earnings miss, as historical patterns show a strong tendency for rebounds following similar setups.

Supporting Evidence

Radian has an 88% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting it often exceeds expectations.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than the historical average, indicating potential undervaluation.

The recent stock price reaction to earnings misses has been relatively muted, suggesting that the market may be overly cautious.

Key Risk

If EPS exceeds $1.00, it could significantly shift market sentiment and challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's earnings will be pivotal in determining whether Radian can rebound from its recent performance challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.80 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing profitability issues.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±0.78%

Historical Avg

±1.55%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move of about 0.78% for Radian's stock following the earnings report, suggesting that investors are anticipating a stable reaction.

Options are pricing a smaller move compared to the historical average of 1.55%, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

29.5%

Calls (400)P/C Ratio: 3.25Puts (1K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Radian beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.95% on the following day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor caution.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.42%, indicating heightened concerns about its financial health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on mortgage insurance premium trends and their impact on revenue.
2Guidance on future earnings expectations and how they compare to current analyst estimates.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness in improving profitability.
4Insights into market conditions affecting home buying and mortgage demand.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning within the mortgage finance industry.