Equity Profile

RIOT

Riot Platforms, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$9.3B

Apr30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software, primarily in the cryptocurrency mining sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $0.32 per share.

$-0.32

Revenue

Revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing growth. The consensus estimate is $129 million.

$129M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RIOT Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software, primarily in the cryptocurrency mining sector. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a significant role in the growing digital currency landscape, which is influenced by trends in blockchain technology and energy consumption.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+106.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3 2025, Riot Platforms surprised analysts with an EPS of $0.26, significantly beating the estimate of a loss. However, the stock fell by nearly 5% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions to the results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to expanding mining capacity.
Plans to enhance software offerings.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Riot Platforms' upcoming earnings, given the recent positive surprise in Q3 2025. However, the expected loss this quarter raises concerns about sustainability.

Bull Case

If Riot can show a significant reduction in losses and strong revenue growth, it may indicate a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses and failure to meet revenue expectations could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting investor skepticism.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$-0.32

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $0.32 per share.

Revenue

$129M

Revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing growth. The consensus estimate is $129 million.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $129 million?

Exceeding this revenue target could signal strong demand and operational success, positively influencing market sentiment.

Can Riot reduce its EPS loss from the expected $-0.32?

A smaller loss than anticipated could indicate improved efficiency and cost management, which is crucial for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly focused on the expected loss of $0.32, neglecting the potential for revenue growth driven by increased mining efficiency and market demand.

Supporting Evidence

Riot has a history of surprising analysts with better-than-expected EPS, as seen in recent quarters.

The options market indicates a high level of expected volatility, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant news.

Recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $129 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will determine the company's trajectory amidst ongoing market volatility.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving revenue growth above $142 million would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If revenue falls below $116 million, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.7%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.7% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

80.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 1.31Puts (1.2M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

73.57%

of float

Insider

6.75%

of float

Holders

522

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Riot beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.85% on the next trading day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses estimates, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.79% in the stock price.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on mining capacity and operational efficiency improvements.
2Any commentary on market demand for cryptocurrency and its impact on revenue.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Discussion on future guidance and expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Details on any changes in regulatory environment affecting the business.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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5 Reports

Brown & Brown, Inc.

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software, primarily in the cryptocurrency mining sector....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $0.32 per share.

$-0.32

Revenue

Revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing growth. The consensus estimate is $129 million.

$129M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RIOT Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+106.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiency.
Commitment to expanding mining capacity.
Plans to enhance software offerings.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Riot can show a significant reduction in losses and strong revenue growth, it may indicate a turnaround, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses and failure to meet revenue expectations could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting investor skepticism.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$-0.32

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health. This quarter, analysts expect a loss of $0.32 per share.

Revenue

$129M

Revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is crucial for assessing growth. The consensus estimate is $129 million.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $129 million?

Exceeding this revenue target could signal strong demand and operational success, positively influencing market sentiment.

Can Riot reduce its EPS loss from the expected $-0.32?

A smaller loss than anticipated could indicate improved efficiency and cost management, which is crucial for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly focused on the expected loss of $0.32, neglecting the potential for revenue growth driven by increased mining efficiency and market demand.

Supporting Evidence

Riot has a history of surprising analysts with better-than-expected EPS, as seen in recent quarters.

The options market indicates a high level of expected volatility, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant news.

Recent operational improvements may not be fully reflected in analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $129 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will determine the company's trajectory amidst ongoing market volatility.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving revenue growth above $142 million would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If revenue falls below $116 million, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.7%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±19.7% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

80.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 1.31Puts (1.2M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

73.57%

of float

Insider

6.75%

of float

Holders

522

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Riot beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.85% on the next trading day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If the company misses estimates, history indicates a potential decline of about 2.79% in the stock price.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on mining capacity and operational efficiency improvements.
2Any commentary on market demand for cryptocurrency and its impact on revenue.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Discussion on future guidance and expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Details on any changes in regulatory environment affecting the business.