Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on application software, primarily in the cryptocurrency sector....
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
Revenue figures help gauge the company's ability to generate sales and grow its business.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
2Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+106.32%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.06%
In the last quarter, Riot Platforms surprised analysts with an EPS of $0.26, significantly beating expectations. However, the stock still declined by nearly 5% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Riot's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a continued recovery in EPS and revenue growth. However, the company has a history of mixed reactions to earnings reports, which adds uncertainty.
Bull Case
If Riot can meet or exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides disappointing guidance, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.
EPS
$-0.32Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$130MRevenue figures help gauge the company's ability to generate sales and grow its business.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will Riot achieve an EPS of at least $-0.32?
This specific EPS target is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and could influence investor sentiment significantly.
Q2
Can Riot generate revenue of $130 million or more?
Meeting or exceeding this revenue target is essential for demonstrating growth and operational success, which could impact stock performance.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Riot's potential for revenue growth due to recent operational improvements that are not fully reflected in current estimates.
Supporting Evidence
Riot has a history of surprising analysts with better-than-expected EPS.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a significant reaction.
Recent operational changes may lead to better-than-expected revenue generation.
Key Risk
If Riot's revenue exceeds $130 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching these metrics as they will provide insight into Riot's financial health and future prospects.
Bull Confirmed If
Achieving an EPS of $-0.32 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational recovery.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS worse than $-0.32 would support the bear case, suggesting ongoing profitability challenges.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±9.57%
Historical Avg
±3.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, indicating heightened volatility expectations.
Options are pricing ±10.5% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
90.0%
Edge
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
73.57%
of float
Insider
6.75%
of float
Holders
522
institutions
Top Holders· as of Dec 2025
Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%
Blackrock Inc.
29,107,428 sh · $541.7M
7.68%
-0.2%
FMR, LLC
12,796,337 sh · $238.1M
3.38%
-37.4%
Starboard Value LP
12,744,576 sh · $237.2M
3.36%
44.5%
Viking Global Investors, L.P.
12,428,894 sh · $231.3M
3.28%
100.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Riot beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline of around 0.85% on the first day, but it would confirm a positive operational trend.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.
Miss
Should Riot miss earnings expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 2.79%, indicating disappointment in the market.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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