Equity Profile

RIOT

Riot Platforms, Inc.

Information TechnologyApplication Software$9.1B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2025After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on developing software applications, particularly in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

$-0.32

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall business health.

$130M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RIOT Q4-2025 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on developing software applications, particularly in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sectors. With a market cap of $9 billion, Riot plays a significant role in the growing interest in digital currencies and related technologies.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+106.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2025, Riot Platforms reported an EPS of $0.26, significantly beating expectations of $-0.18. However, the stock fell 4.87% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the positive earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Riot to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.32 and revenue of $130 million. The market is watching closely for any signs of improvement in profitability and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Riot can exceed revenue expectations and show a path to profitability, it could signal strong demand for its software applications, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports a larger loss than anticipated, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.32

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$130M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Riot's revenue exceed the $130 million consensus estimate?

Exceeding revenue expectations could indicate strong demand for its products and improve investor sentiment.

How does management plan to address the expected EPS loss of $-0.32?

Investors will be looking for clear strategies to improve profitability and reduce losses in future quarters.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Riot's ability to leverage its software capabilities in the growing blockchain market, potentially leading to better-than-expected revenue.

Supporting Evidence

Riot's recent EPS surprises indicate a potential for unexpected positive outcomes.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors are bracing for significant news.

Past performance shows that the stock has reacted positively to unexpected earnings surprises.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $130 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it reflects Riot's ability to navigate a competitive landscape while managing costs.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue figure above $130 million would confirm the bull case, suggesting strong market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.32 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.36%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are expecting volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.4% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

79.4%

Calls (3.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.29Puts (3.9M)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

73.57%

of float

Insider

6.75%

of float

Holders

522

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Riot beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, with an average 1-day move of -0.85%, indicating potential for a rally.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

If the company misses on EPS or revenue, history suggests a potential downside move, averaging +2.79% in such cases.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new software applications or partnerships.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into market demand for blockchain technology.
4Details on customer acquisition and retention efforts.
5Future guidance on revenue and profitability targets.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms, Inc. is a technology company focused on developing software applications, particularly in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

$-0.32

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall business health.

$130M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RIOT Q4-2025 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+106.32%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Riot can exceed revenue expectations and show a path to profitability, it could signal strong demand for its software applications, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports a larger loss than anticipated, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.32

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$130M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Riot's revenue exceed the $130 million consensus estimate?

Exceeding revenue expectations could indicate strong demand for its products and improve investor sentiment.

How does management plan to address the expected EPS loss of $-0.32?

Investors will be looking for clear strategies to improve profitability and reduce losses in future quarters.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Riot's ability to leverage its software capabilities in the growing blockchain market, potentially leading to better-than-expected revenue.

Supporting Evidence

Riot's recent EPS surprises indicate a potential for unexpected positive outcomes.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors are bracing for significant news.

Past performance shows that the stock has reacted positively to unexpected earnings surprises.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $130 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it reflects Riot's ability to navigate a competitive landscape while managing costs.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue figure above $130 million would confirm the bull case, suggesting strong market demand.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.32 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.36%

Historical Avg

±3.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are expecting volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.4% while RIOT has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

79.4%

Calls (3.5M)P/C Ratio: 0.29Puts (3.9M)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

73.57%

of float

Insider

6.75%

of float

Holders

522

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
39,910,169 sh · $742.7M
10.53%
0.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Riot beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, with an average 1-day move of -0.85%, indicating potential for a rally.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

If the company misses on EPS or revenue, history suggests a potential downside move, averaging +2.79% in such cases.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new software applications or partnerships.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies.
3Insights into market demand for blockchain technology.
4Details on customer acquisition and retention efforts.
5Future guidance on revenue and profitability targets.