Equity Profile

RITM

Rithm Capital Corp.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$5.8B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well Rithm Capital is managing its investments.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric shows the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for understanding profitability in a mortgage REIT.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RITM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). The company invests in mortgage-related assets, which can be sensitive to interest rate changes and housing market trends, making it an important player in the financial landscape.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Rithm Capital reported an EPS of $0.51, slightly missing the estimate of $0.53. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Rithm Capital's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially after the recent EPS miss. Investors are keen to see if the company can stabilize its performance.

Bull Case

If Rithm Capital can report strong EPS and maintain or increase its dividend payout, it could restore investor confidence and drive the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again or lowers its dividend, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter?

Given the recent EPS miss, investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement or further declines.

Will the dividend payout be maintained?

As a REIT, maintaining or increasing the dividend is crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Rithm Capital's ability to rebound from its recent EPS miss, as historical data shows a strong tendency to recover.

Supporting Evidence

Rithm has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than the historical average, indicating heightened expectations.

The stock has shown resilience in past quarters following misses, often recovering quickly.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.55, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing EPS report, and any changes in dividend policy will heavily influence investor sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher along with a maintained dividend payout would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 or a reduction in the dividend payout would signal a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.55%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 9.55%, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.5%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 2.10Puts (42K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.47%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.66%, further dampening investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the dividend payout policy.
2Details on the net interest margin for the quarter.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and interest rates.
4Insights into any changes in investment strategy or asset allocation.
5Comments on operational efficiencies and cost management.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well Rithm Capital is managing its investments.

N/A

Net Interest Margin

This metric shows the difference between interest income generated and interest paid out, crucial for understanding profitability in a mortgage REIT.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RITM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Rithm Capital reported an EPS of $0.51, slightly missing the estimate of $0.53. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Rithm Capital's upcoming earnings are cautious, especially after the recent EPS miss. Investors are keen to see if the company can stabilize its performance.

Bull Case

If Rithm Capital can report strong EPS and maintain or increase its dividend payout, it could restore investor confidence and drive the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again or lowers its dividend, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter?

Given the recent EPS miss, investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement or further declines.

Will the dividend payout be maintained?

As a REIT, maintaining or increasing the dividend is crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Rithm Capital's ability to rebound from its recent EPS miss, as historical data shows a strong tendency to recover.

Supporting Evidence

Rithm has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, indicating potential for positive surprises.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than the historical average, indicating heightened expectations.

The stock has shown resilience in past quarters following misses, often recovering quickly.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $0.55, it could significantly shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a disappointing EPS report, and any changes in dividend policy will heavily influence investor sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher along with a maintained dividend payout would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 or a reduction in the dividend payout would signal a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.55%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of around 9.55%, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.5%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 2.10Puts (42K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.47%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.66%, further dampening investor sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the dividend payout policy.
2Details on the net interest margin for the quarter.
3Management's outlook on the housing market and interest rates.
4Insights into any changes in investment strategy or asset allocation.
5Comments on operational efficiencies and cost management.