Equity Profile

RITM

Rithm Capital Corp.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$5.1B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial measure of profitability and will indicate how well RITM has managed its investments this quarter.

N/A

Dividend Yield

As a REIT, Rithm's ability to pay dividends is vital for attracting investors, and any changes could impact stock performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RITM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). The company invests in mortgage-related assets, which can be influenced by interest rates and housing market trends, making it a key player in the financial landscape.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Rithm reported an EPS of $0.51, slightly missing estimates. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Rithm's upcoming earnings, given its historical performance and the current market environment.

Bull Case

If Rithm can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong dividend stability, it may attract more investors, driving the stock price up.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Rithm fails to meet earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about its management of mortgage assets, leading to a further decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

This figure will be critical in determining whether Rithm can regain investor confidence after missing estimates last quarter.

How has the net interest margin changed this quarter?

A stable or improving net interest margin would indicate effective management of mortgage assets, which is vital for a mortgage REIT.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Rithm's ability to stabilize its earnings and manage its mortgage portfolio effectively, given recent interest rate trends.

Supporting Evidence

Rithm has historically beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.

The significant implied move in options indicates that traders expect a notable shift, which may not align with conservative consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If Rithm's EPS exceeds $0.55, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and attract more investors.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as Rithm seeks to recover from a recent earnings miss and demonstrate its ability to manage mortgage-related risks.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong management and profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.55%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.5%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 2.10Puts (42K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm beats earnings expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.47%, confirming improved investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see minimal movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.66%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the dividend policy and its sustainability.
2Details on changes in the mortgage market that could impact Rithm's portfolio.
3Insights into the company's strategy for managing interest rate risks.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Any commentary on operational efficiencies or cost management initiatives.

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Company Snapshot

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) operates in the financial sector, specifically as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT)....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial measure of profitability and will indicate how well RITM has managed its investments this quarter.

N/A

Dividend Yield

As a REIT, Rithm's ability to pay dividends is vital for attracting investors, and any changes could impact stock performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

RITM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.18%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.94%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Rithm reported an EPS of $0.51, slightly missing estimates. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Rithm's upcoming earnings, given its historical performance and the current market environment.

Bull Case

If Rithm can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate strong dividend stability, it may attract more investors, driving the stock price up.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Rithm fails to meet earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about its management of mortgage assets, leading to a further decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

This figure will be critical in determining whether Rithm can regain investor confidence after missing estimates last quarter.

How has the net interest margin changed this quarter?

A stable or improving net interest margin would indicate effective management of mortgage assets, which is vital for a mortgage REIT.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Rithm's ability to stabilize its earnings and manage its mortgage portfolio effectively, given recent interest rate trends.

Supporting Evidence

Rithm has historically beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.

The significant implied move in options indicates that traders expect a notable shift, which may not align with conservative consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If Rithm's EPS exceeds $0.55, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and attract more investors.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as Rithm seeks to recover from a recent earnings miss and demonstrate its ability to manage mortgage-related risks.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.55 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong management and profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.55%

Historical Avg

±1.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±9.6% while RITM has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

22.5%

Calls (7K)P/C Ratio: 2.10Puts (42K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Rithm beats earnings expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.47%, confirming improved investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see minimal movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.66%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the dividend policy and its sustainability.
2Details on changes in the mortgage market that could impact Rithm's portfolio.
3Insights into the company's strategy for managing interest rate risks.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and market conditions.
5Any commentary on operational efficiencies or cost management initiatives.