Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$-2.29
EPS est.
$-1.83
EPS surprise
-24.86%
1-day move
+2.62%
Revolution Medicines reported a larger-than-expected loss per share, missing analyst expectations. Despite this, the stock rose by 2.62%, which may indicate that investors are looking past the earnings miss or are optimistic about future developments. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves some uncertainty about the company's current performance and future outlook.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-2.29 | $-1.84 | -24.86% |
| Revenue | — | $2M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Revolution Medicines, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing targeted therapies for cancer treatment. With a market cap of $31 billion, it plays a significant role in the health care sector, particularly in the development of innovative treatments that could improve patient outcomes.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Revolution Medicines reported an EPS of -$1.86, which was worse than the expected -$1.56. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 1.52% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
0%
Avg EPS surprise
-19.12%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.40%
Analysts are expecting a challenging quarter with a consensus EPS of -$1.84 and minimal revenue of $2 million. The market is closely watching for any signs of improvement in financial performance.
Bull case
If the company can exceed EPS expectations and show stronger revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its financial health, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses its EPS and revenue targets again, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further declines in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
-$1.84Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$2MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS come in better than the expected -$1.84?
A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improving operational efficiency and investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue figures can the company report this quarter?
Revenue performance will be crucial in assessing market demand for its products and overall business health.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a revenue surprise given recent advancements in product development that could drive sales.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 7.71% move, suggesting expectations for volatility that may not align with actual performance.
Insider selling of $18 million could indicate confidence in upcoming performance, contrary to bearish sentiment.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $5 million, it could significantly shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of misses, and the market is looking for signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of -$1.70 or better, along with revenue exceeding $5 million, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than -$1.96 and revenue below $2 million would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.71%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 7.71%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.2% while RVMD has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
113.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 4 of 18 (22%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 14 of 18 (78%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.8%, with a raw directional average of +3.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$2.2M
10,782 sh
3 insiders
Net
$2.2M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 8 open-market trades
$1.3M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.26%
of float
Insider
1.85%
of float
Holders
947
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
13,695,790 sh · $2.8B
6.39%
22.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Revolution Medicines beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +3.0%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history suggests an average one-day move of -0.54%, indicating a negative market response.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$743,285.34
Net selling
$158,599.88
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 25, 2026 · @ $200.54
3,121 sh
$625,885.34
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $200.82
2,200 sh
$441,801.36
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $201.72
1,609 sh
$324,573.76
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $203.91
1,199 sh
$244,484.97
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $202.81
1,000 sh
$202,812.70
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Farallon Capital Management LLC
13,550,796 sh · $2.7B
6.32%
-0.4%
FMR, LLC
12,200,422 sh · $2.5B
5.69%
44.1%
Baker Bros. Advisors, LP
11,443,357 sh · $2.3B
5.34%
19.8%
Jupiter Topco LLC
10,736,145 sh · $2.2B
5.01%
100.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.